Solution Report: DM: NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model
| Primary | Comparison: Full Tree | |
|---|---|---|
| Num Sections | 5,548 | 5,548 |
| Num Ruptures | 553,116 | 553,116 |
| Num Unique Ruptures | 0 (0.00%) | 0 (0.00%) |
| Total Supra-Seis Rupture Rate | 0.89693385 | 0.59285897 |
| Total Supra-Seis Recurrence Interval | 1.11 yrs | 1.69 yrs |
| Solution Total Moment Rate | 2.7503397e19 N-m/yr | 2.4726743e19 N-m/yr |
| Target Total Moment Rate | 2.7282204e19 N-m/yr | 2.3880392e19 N-m/yr |
| Deformation Model Creep-Reduced Total Moment Rate | 2.7312984e19 N-m/yr | 2.3788504e19 N-m/yr |
| Deformation Model Original Total Moment Rate | 3.284975e19 N-m/yr | 2.8874106e19 N-m/yr |
| Magnitude Range | [5.13,8.38] | [5.13,8.38] |
| Length Range | [3.26,1469.36] km | [3.26,1469.36] km |
| Rupture Section Count Range | [2,250] | [2,250] |
Table Of Contents
- General Information
- Logic Tree Branch
- Solution MFDs
- Rupture Rate Distribution
- Fault Participation Rates
- Regional Nucleation Rates
- Section b-values
- Rupture Scaling
- Rupture Scalar Histograms
- Subsection Maximum Values
- Fault Section Connections
- Slip Rates
- SAF Creeping Section and Parkfield
- Paleoseismic Data Comparison
- Jump Counts Over Distance
- Fault Segmentation
- Special Fault Detail Pages
General Information
Attached Metadata
Branch Averaged Fault System Solution, across 450 branches with a total weight of 0.3600000000000011.
The utilized branches at each level are (counts in parenthesis):
Fault Model:
NSHM23 WUS Fault Model v3 (450)
Deformation Model:
NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model (450)
Scaling Relationship:
LogA+4.3, From Moment (75)
LogA+4.2, From Moment (75)
LogA+4.1, From Moment (75)
Width Limited, From Moment (75)
LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length (75)
Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop (75)
Supra-Seismogenic b-value:
b=0.0 (90)
b=0.25 (90)
b=0.5 (90)
b=0.75 (90)
b=1.0 (90)
Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties:
Even-Fit Paleo Data (150)
Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x) (150)
Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x) (150)
Segmentation Model:
None (90)
Low Segmentation (90)
Middle Segmentation (90)
High Segmentation (90)
Classic (90)
OpenSHA Build Info
| Description | Value |
|---|---|
| Solution Creation Time | 2024-02-22 20:43:36 PST |
| Solution OpenSHA Build Time | 2024-02-20 13:22:06 PST |
| Solution OpenSHA Git Branch | master |
| Solution OpenSHA Git Hash | 32a41e3846cf46c6f7dbc13dd2f90ef51dda0512 |
| Report Creation Time | 2024-02-22 20:46:27 PST |
| Report OpenSHA Build Time | 2024-02-20 13:22:06 PST |
| Report OpenSHA Git Branch | master |
| Report OpenSHA Git Hash | 32a41e3846cf46c6f7dbc13dd2f90ef51dda0512 |
Logic Tree Branch
| Level | Choice | Comparison Choice |
|---|---|---|
| Fault Model | NSHM23 WUS Fault Model v3 | NSHM23 WUS Fault Model v3 |
| Deformation Model | NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model | (N/A) |
| Scaling Relationship | (N/A) | (N/A) |
| Supra-Seismogenic b-value | (N/A) | (N/A) |
| Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties | (N/A) | (N/A) |
| Segmentation Model | (N/A) | (N/A) |
Solution MFDs
MFD Regions
| Download GeoJSON w/ Faults | Download Raw GeoJSON |
|---|
Total Model Region MFDs
This section contains MFDs for all sources included in the model. Subsequent sections show MFDs for subsets of the model that lie in subregions.
| Incremental MFDs | Cumulative MFDs |
|---|---|
 |  |
Distribution of Gridded Seismicity | |
 |  |
Distribution of Sum (Supra-Seis + Gridded) | |
 |  |
WUS Collection Region
| Incremental MFDs | Cumulative MFDs |
|---|---|
 |  |
Distribution of Gridded Seismicity | |
 |  |
Distribution of Sum (Supra-Seis + Gridded) | |
 |  |
NSHMP Intermountain West Region
| Incremental MFDs | Cumulative MFDs |
|---|---|
 |  |
Distribution of Gridded Seismicity | |
 |  |
Distribution of Sum (Supra-Seis + Gridded) | |
 |  |
NSHMP Pacific Northwest Region
| Incremental MFDs | Cumulative MFDs |
|---|---|
 |  |
Distribution of Gridded Seismicity | |
 |  |
Distribution of Sum (Supra-Seis + Gridded) | |
 |  |
NSHMP UCERF Region
| Incremental MFDs | Cumulative MFDs |
|---|---|
 |  |
Distribution of Gridded Seismicity | |
 |  |
Distribution of Sum (Supra-Seis + Gridded) | |
 |  |
Los Angeles Basin - WGCEP 2007
| Incremental MFDs | Cumulative MFDs |
|---|---|
 |  |
Distribution of Gridded Seismicity | |
 |  |
Distribution of Sum (Supra-Seis + Gridded) | |
 |  |
Puget Lowland
| Incremental MFDs | Cumulative MFDs |
|---|---|
 |  |
Distribution of Gridded Seismicity | |
 |  |
Distribution of Sum (Supra-Seis + Gridded) | |
 |  |
San Francisco Bay Area - WGCEP 2002
| Incremental MFDs | Cumulative MFDs |
|---|---|
 |  |
Distribution of Gridded Seismicity | |
 |  |
Distribution of Sum (Supra-Seis + Gridded) | |
 |  |
Wasatch Front - WGUEP 2013
| Incremental MFDs | Cumulative MFDs |
|---|---|
 |  |
Distribution of Gridded Seismicity | |
 |  |
Distribution of Sum (Supra-Seis + Gridded) | |
 |  |
Rupture Rate Distribution
| Primary | Comparison | |
|---|---|---|
| Non-zero ruptures | 448,538 (81.09%) | 525,684 (95.04%) |
| Unique non-zero ruptures | 0 (0.00%) | 77,146 (13.95%) |
| Rate of unique non-zero ruptures | 0.0 (0.00%) | 0.013692156 (2.31%) |
Logic Tree Rate Statistics
| % ≥ 0.0 | % ≥ 1.0E-16 | % ≥ 1.0E-14 | % ≥ 1.0E-12 | % ≥ 1.0E-10 | % ≥ 1.0E-8 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8.07%, [0.50%,16.03%] | 8.03%, [0.50%,15.99%] | 7.47%, [0.46%,15.01%] | 6.40%, [0.41%,12.19%] | 5.55%, [0.40%,9.86%] | 3.80%, [0.38%,6.11%] |
| Scaling Relationship | ||||||
| LogA+4.3, From Moment | 7.76%, [0.50%,15.16%] | 7.72%, [0.50%,15.12%] | 7.26%, [0.46%,14.28%] | 6.30%, [0.41%,11.59%] | 5.36%, [0.40%,9.45%] | 3.53%, [0.39%,5.20%] |
| LogA+4.2, From Moment | 7.79%, [0.50%,15.04%] | 7.75%, [0.50%,15.00%] | 7.22%, [0.47%,14.07%] | 6.23%, [0.44%,11.11%] | 5.41%, [0.43%,8.84%] | 3.69%, [0.39%,5.76%] |
| LogA+4.1, From Moment | 8.43%, [0.57%,16.02%] | 8.39%, [0.57%,15.98%] | 7.77%, [0.54%,14.99%] | 6.64%, [0.49%,11.56%] | 5.84%, [0.49%,9.86%] | 4.05%, [0.38%,6.11%] |
| Width Limited, From Moment | 7.94%, [0.54%,15.25%] | 7.91%, [0.53%,15.22%] | 7.40%, [0.50%,14.36%] | 6.39%, [0.44%,11.66%] | 5.55%, [0.44%,9.48%] | 3.85%, [0.41%,5.85%] |
| LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length | 8.09%, [0.54%,16.03%] | 8.05%, [0.54%,15.99%] | 7.45%, [0.50%,15.01%] | 6.32%, [0.45%,11.59%] | 5.54%, [0.45%,9.56%] | 3.81%, [0.39%,5.64%] |
| Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop | 8.39%, [0.64%,15.96%] | 8.35%, [0.64%,15.92%] | 7.72%, [0.60%,14.89%] | 6.51%, [0.50%,12.19%] | 5.60%, [0.48%,9.45%] | 3.85%, [0.39%,5.76%] |
| Supra-Seismogenic b-value | ||||||
| b=0.0 | 7.00%, [0.50%,13.72%] | 6.96%, [0.50%,13.68%] | 6.66%, [0.46%,13.17%] | 6.02%, [0.41%,11.54%] | 5.35%, [0.40%,9.86%] | 3.45%, [0.38%,6.11%] |
| b=0.25 | 7.44%, [2.15%,13.63%] | 7.40%, [2.10%,13.60%] | 7.01%, [1.87%,13.02%] | 6.30%, [1.76%,11.24%] | 5.62%, [1.71%,9.25%] | 3.90%, [1.60%,5.76%] |
| b=0.5 | 7.76%, [2.57%,14.31%] | 7.72%, [2.52%,14.28%] | 7.18%, [2.16%,13.53%] | 6.28%, [1.96%,11.33%] | 5.51%, [1.87%,9.20%] | 3.81%, [1.70%,5.58%] |
| b=0.75 | 8.54%, [3.15%,15.10%] | 8.50%, [3.09%,15.07%] | 7.79%, [2.57%,14.18%] | 6.50%, [2.20%,11.59%] | 5.54%, [2.08%,9.00%] | 3.83%, [1.88%,5.62%] |
| b=1.0 | 9.61%, [3.44%,16.03%] | 9.57%, [3.44%,15.99%] | 8.70%, [3.38%,15.01%] | 6.90%, [2.71%,12.19%] | 5.72%, [2.48%,8.93%] | 3.98%, [2.21%,5.89%] |
| Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties | ||||||
| Even-Fit Paleo Data | 7.38%, [0.50%,13.26%] | 7.34%, [0.50%,13.22%] | 6.79%, [0.46%,12.51%] | 5.84%, [0.41%,10.83%] | 5.13%, [0.40%,8.92%] | 3.54%, [0.39%,5.63%] |
| Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x) | 8.83%, [0.64%,16.03%] | 8.79%, [0.64%,15.99%] | 8.32%, [0.63%,15.01%] | 7.23%, [0.59%,12.19%] | 6.18%, [0.53%,9.86%] | 4.25%, [0.38%,6.11%] |
| Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x) | 8.00%, [0.57%,15.02%] | 7.96%, [0.57%,14.97%] | 7.30%, [0.52%,13.63%] | 6.13%, [0.45%,10.89%] | 5.33%, [0.44%,9.83%] | 3.59%, [0.41%,5.83%] |
| Segmentation Model | ||||||
| None | 3.93%, [1.96%,9.18%] | 3.88%, [1.92%,9.14%] | 3.30%, [1.78%,8.02%] | 2.80%, [1.71%,6.18%] | 2.65%, [1.64%,5.52%] | 2.44%, [1.53%,4.79%] |
| Low Segmentation | 9.01%, [6.91%,15.14%] | 8.97%, [6.85%,15.10%] | 8.25%, [6.27%,14.04%] | 7.10%, [5.36%,11.52%] | 6.26%, [4.86%,8.34%] | 4.59%, [3.57%,6.11%] |
| Middle Segmentation | 11.19%, [8.96%,15.96%] | 11.14%, [8.91%,15.92%] | 10.43%, [8.29%,14.89%] | 8.97%, [7.04%,12.19%] | 7.75%, [6.19%,9.83%] | 4.76%, [3.87%,5.85%] |
| High Segmentation | 13.23%, [11.60%,16.03%] | 13.19%, [11.56%,15.99%] | 12.43%, [10.84%,15.01%] | 10.34%, [8.85%,11.66%] | 8.34%, [6.94%,9.86%] | 4.54%, [3.79%,5.29%] |
| Classic | 2.97%, [0.50%,4.01%] | 2.97%, [0.50%,4.01%] | 2.94%, [0.46%,3.98%] | 2.78%, [0.41%,3.50%] | 2.74%, [0.40%,3.38%] | 2.64%, [0.38%,3.29%] |
Rupture Rate Comparison
 |  |
|---|---|
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Connection Rate Distribution
This plot gives the rate that each unique connection (between separate fault sections) is utilized.
Fault Participation Rates
The rate at which each fault section participates in events in the listed magnitude range. Maps in the left column give rates above various magnitude thresholds, and in the right column rates between the given threshold and the next threshold level.
Rates are plotted on a log scale. Gray values mean that the rate is zero, and blue means that it is at or below the minimum plotted rate.
Supra-Seismogenic | Range: M≤6 |
|---|---|
 |  |
| Download GeoJSON | Download GeoJSON |
Supra-Seismogenic Comparison Ratio | Supra-Seismogenic Comparison Scatter |
 |  |
| Download GeoJSON | |
M≥6 | Range: M∈[6, 6.5] |
 |  |
| Download GeoJSON | Download GeoJSON |
M≥6 Comparison Ratio | M≥6 Comparison Scatter |
 |  |
| Download GeoJSON | |
M≥6.5 | Range: M∈[6.5, 7] |
 |  |
| Download GeoJSON | Download GeoJSON |
M≥6.5 Comparison Ratio | M≥6.5 Comparison Scatter |
 |  |
| Download GeoJSON | |
M≥7 | Range: M∈[7, 7.5] |
 |  |
| Download GeoJSON | Download GeoJSON |
M≥7 Comparison Ratio | M≥7 Comparison Scatter |
 |  |
| Download GeoJSON | |
M≥7.5 | Range: M∈[7.5, 8] |
 |  |
| Download GeoJSON | Download GeoJSON |
M≥7.5 Comparison Ratio | M≥7.5 Comparison Scatter |
 |  |
| Download GeoJSON | |
M≥8 | |
 | |
| Download GeoJSON | |
M≥8 Comparison Ratio | M≥8 Comparison Scatter |
 |  |
| Download GeoJSON |
Regional Nucleation Rates
The gridded seismicity model attached to this solution is of type NSHM23_AbstractGridSourceProvider$Precomputed and has a spatial resolution of 0.1 degrees.
The following maps show the faulting type at each grid cell from the gridded seismicity model:
| Fraction Strike-Slip | Fraction Normal | Fraction Reverse |
|---|---|---|
 |  |  |
The following maps show the total nucleation rate in each grid cell, summed across both gridded seismicity and fault-based sources, as well as their individual contributions. No model-specific fault-to-grid-cell associations were supplied, so rates on faults are mapped to the grid cells that their 3D surfaces intersect.
M≥5, Total | M≥5, Gridded Only | M≥5, Fault Only |
|---|---|---|
 |  |  |
M≥6, Total | M≥6, Gridded Only | M≥6, Fault Only |
 |  |  |
M≥7, Total | M≥7, Gridded Only | M≥7, Fault Only |
 |  |  |
M≥8, Total | M≥8, Gridded Only | M≥8, Fault Only |
 |  |  |
Download moment rate XYZ data: Fault moment Rates Gridded moment Rates
The following table shows nucleation moment rates in each cell, as well as the ratio of fault to gridded moment.
Total Moment Rate | Fault/Gridded Moment Rate Ratio |
|---|---|
 |  |
Fault Moment Rate | Gridded Moment Rate |
 |  |
Section b-values
Subsection b-values
These plots estimate a Gutenberg-Richter b-value for each subsection and parent section nucleation MFD. This is a rough approximation, and is intended primarily for model comparisons.
Note that b-values here are calculated from the branch-averaged nucleation MFD on each section, and do not represent the average of branch-specific b-values. The latter are plotted separately at the end of this section.
Download b-value CSV files: sect_b_values.csv sect_b_values_comp.csv
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|---|
| Primary b-value Distribution | Primary b-value Rate-Dependence |
|---|---|
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Target b-value Difference | Target b-value Scatter |
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Comparison B-Value Distribution | Comparison b-value Rate-Dependence |
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Comparison b-value Difference | Comparison b-value Scatter |
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Parent Section b-values
Download b-value CSV files: parent_sect_b_values.csv parent_sect_b_values_comp.csv
| Primary b-value Distribution | Primary b-value Rate-Dependence |
|---|---|
 |  |
Target b-value Difference | Target b-value Scatter |
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Comparison B-Value Distribution | Comparison b-value Rate-Dependence |
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Comparison b-value Difference | Comparison b-value Scatter |
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Branch-averaged subsection b-values
This solution has branch-specific b-values attached. The following plots show the branch-averaged b-value, interquartile range (IQR), and total range computed across all 450 branches.
Interquartile Range | Full Range |
|---|---|
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Minimum | Maximum |
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25 %-ile | 75 %-ile |
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Rupture Scaling
Magnitude Scaling
| Linear Plots | Log10 Plots |
|---|---|
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Slip Scaling
| Linear Plots | Log10 Plots |
|---|---|
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Rupture Scalar Histograms
Rupture Length
Total length (km) of the rupture, not including jumps or gaps.
| DM: NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model | Full Tree |
|---|---|
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Rupture Length Mechanism-Specific Histograms
Right-Lateral SS | Left-Lateral SS | Reverse |
|---|---|---|
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Normal | Oblique | |
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Rupture Magnitude
Magnitude of the rupture.
| DM: NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model | Full Tree |
|---|---|
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Rupture Magnitude Mechanism-Specific Histograms
Right-Lateral SS | Left-Lateral SS | Reverse |
|---|---|---|
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Normal | Oblique | |
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Maximum Jump Dist
The maximum jump distance in the rupture.
| DM: NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model | Full Tree |
|---|---|
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Maximum Jump Dist Mechanism-Specific Histograms
Right-Lateral SS | Left-Lateral SS | Reverse |
|---|---|---|
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Normal | Oblique | |
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Cumulative Jump Dist
The total cumulative jump distance summed over all jumps in the rupture.
| DM: NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model | Full Tree |
|---|---|
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Cumulative Jump Dist Mechanism-Specific Histograms
Right-Lateral SS | Left-Lateral SS | Reverse |
|---|---|---|
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Normal | Oblique | |
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Cumulative Rake Change
Cumulative rake change for this rupture.
| DM: NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model | Full Tree |
|---|---|
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Cumulative Rake Change Mechanism-Specific Histograms
Right-Lateral SS | Left-Lateral SS | Reverse |
|---|---|---|
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Normal | Oblique | |
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Subsection Maximum Values
These plots show the maximum value of various quantities across all ruptures for which each individual subsection participates. This is useful, for example, to find sections with low maximum magnitudes (due to low or no connectivity).
Subsection Maximum Rupture Length
| DM: NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model | Full Tree |
|---|---|
 |  |
| Download GeoJSON | Download GeoJSON |
 |  |
| Difference | Ratio |
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Subsection Maximum Rupture Magnitude
| DM: NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model | Full Tree |
|---|---|
 |  |
| Download GeoJSON | Download GeoJSON |
 |  |
| Difference | Ratio |
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Fault Section Connections
| View high resolution | Download GeoJSON |
|---|
Jump Overlaps
| DM: NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model | Full Tree | |
|---|---|---|
| Total Count | 1863 | 1863 |
| # Unique Jumps | 0 (0.00%) | 0 (0.00%) |
| Unique Jump Rate | 0.0 (0.00%) | 0.0 (0.00%) |
| DM: NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model | Full Tree |
|---|---|
 |  |
| Download GeoJSON | Download GeoJSON |
 |  |
| Download GeoJSON | Download GeoJSON |
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Unique Connection Example Ruptures
New Ruptures with Unique Connections
(N/A)
Full Tree Ruptures with Unique Connections
(N/A)
Connected Clusters
Connected clusters of fault sections, where all sections plotted in a given color connect with all other sections of the same color through ruptures. There may not be any single rupture that connects all such sections, but rather, chains of ruptures connect the sections. Only the first 10 clusters are plotted with bold colors; smaller clusters are plotted in random saturated colors (note that neighboring clusters can be similar colors by chance), and fully isolated faults are plotted in black.
Rupture Set Clusters
| DM: NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model | Full Tree |
|---|---|
 |  |
| Download GeoJSON | Download GeoJSON |
| Rank | Sections | Parent Sections | Ruptures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3,405 (61.37%) | 515 (50.69%) | 493,997 (89.31%) |
| 2 | 213 (3.84%) | 46 (4.53%) | 36,049 (6.52%) |
| 3 | 124 (2.24%) | 18 (1.77%) | 3,365 (0.61%) |
| 4 | 108 (1.95%) | 32 (3.15%) | 6,861 (1.24%) |
| 5 | 97 (1.75%) | 15 (1.48%) | 1,950 (0.35%) |
| 6 | 70 (1.26%) | 7 (0.69%) | 1,195 (0.22%) |
| 7 | 61 (1.10%) | 7 (0.69%) | 650 (0.12%) |
| 8 | 56 (1.01%) | 10 (0.98%) | 1,760 (0.32%) |
| 9 | 49 (0.88%) | 7 (0.69%) | 458 (0.08%) |
| 10 | 46 (0.83%) | 6 (0.59%) | 736 (0.13%) |
| 11->80 | 989 (17.83%) | 262 (25.79%) | 5,413 (0.98%) |
| 91 isolated | 330 (5.95%) | 91 (8.96%) | 682 (0.12%) |
Solution Clusters
This section shows clusters of sections connected by ruptures with nonzero rates in the fault system solution, which differs from those calculated using every available rupture in the rupture set. This can occur by random chance, or if the solver was conditioned to only use a particular subset of all available ruptures (e.g., for a segmentation constraint).
| DM: NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model | Full Tree |
|---|---|
 |  |
| Download GeoJSON | Download GeoJSON |
| Rank | Sections | Parent Sections | Ruptures |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3,405 (61.37%) | 515 (50.69%) | 393,326 (71.11%) |
| 2 | 213 (3.84%) | 46 (4.53%) | 34,640 (6.26%) |
| 3 | 124 (2.24%) | 18 (1.77%) | 2,515 (0.45%) |
| 4 | 108 (1.95%) | 32 (3.15%) | 6,606 (1.19%) |
| 5 | 97 (1.75%) | 15 (1.48%) | 1,607 (0.29%) |
| 6 | 70 (1.26%) | 7 (0.69%) | 1,171 (0.21%) |
| 7 | 61 (1.10%) | 7 (0.69%) | 564 (0.10%) |
| 8 | 56 (1.01%) | 10 (0.98%) | 1,708 (0.31%) |
| 9 | 49 (0.88%) | 7 (0.69%) | 411 (0.07%) |
| 10 | 46 (0.83%) | 6 (0.59%) | 734 (0.13%) |
| 11->73 | 904 (16.29%) | 233 (22.93%) | 4,653 (0.84%) |
| 77 isolated | 287 (5.17%) | 77 (7.58%) | 603 (0.11%) |
Slip Rates
Download CSV file with slip rate data: slip_rates.csv
Linear Slip Rate Plots
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|---|---|
| Download GeoJSON | Download GeoJSON |
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| Download GeoJSON | Download GeoJSON |
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| Download GeoJSON | Download GeoJSON |
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Log10 Slip Rate Plots
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|---|---|
| Download GeoJSON | Download GeoJSON |
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| Download GeoJSON | Download GeoJSON |
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| Download GeoJSON |
Slip Rate Std Dev Plots
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|---|---|
| Download GeoJSON | Download GeoJSON |
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| Download GeoJSON | Download GeoJSON |
Slip Rate & Area Reductions
Primary Creep Rates | Comparison Creep Rates |
|---|---|
 |  |
| Download GeoJSON | Download GeoJSON |
Primary Aseismic Slip Factors | Comparison Aseismic Slip Factors |
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| Download GeoJSON | Download GeoJSON |
Primary Coupling Coefficients | Comparison Coupling Coefficients |
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| Download GeoJSON | Download GeoJSON |
Primary Subseismogenic Reduction Factors | Comparison Subseismogenic Reduction Factors |
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| Download GeoJSON | Download GeoJSON |
SAF Creeping Section and Parkfield
Parkfield Magnitudes
28 ruptures found that rupture only the Parkfield section.
| # Subsections | Rupture Count | Length (km) | Magnitude Range | Annual Rate | Recurrence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 7 | 9.11 | [5.87,5.87] | 0.0070862425 | 141.12 |
| 3 | 6 | 13.67 | [6.05,6.05] | 0.017376155 | 57.55 |
| 4 | 5 | 18.23 | [6.18,6.18] | 0.011717264 | 85.34 |
| 5 | 4 | 22.79 | [6.29,6.29] | 0.0 | ∞ |
| 6 | 3 | 27.34 | [6.37,6.37] | 0.0 | ∞ |
| 7 | 2 | 31.90 | [6.45,6.45] | 0.0 | ∞ |
| 8 | 1 | 36.46 | [6.51,6.51] | 0.0 | ∞ |
| Total | 28 | [9.11,36.46] | [5.87,6.51] | 0.03617966 | 27.64 |
Rupture Rates Through Creeping Section
A rupture is considered to be through the creeping section if it ruptures the creeping section as well as at least part of one section on each side of the creeping section.
| Minimum Magnitude or Length | Rate Through Creeping | RI (years) | % of Creeping Sect Rate | % of Santa Cruz Rate | % of Calaveras Rate | % of Parkfield Rate | % of Total Solution Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supra-Seismogenic | 1.5341982E-4 | 6518.06 | 3.33% | 1.04% | 2.52% | 0.41% | 0.02% |
| M≥6 | 1.5341982E-4 | 6518.06 | 3.33% | 1.04% | 2.52% | 0.51% | 0.02% |
| M≥7 | 1.5341153E-4 | 6518.41 | 63.02% | 3.33% | 4.88% | 17.62% | 0.10% |
| M≥7.5 | 1.507572E-4 | 6633.18 | 69.02% | 8.55% | 34.01% | 18.73% | 0.63% |
| M≥8 | 8.4087034E-5 | 11892.44 | 92.00% | 139.14% | 94.16% | 48.39% | 12.72% |
| L≥500 km | 1.13106384E-4 | 8841.23 | 92.56% | 34.82% | 81.86% | 57.19% | 8.63% |
| L≥600 km | 8.6091364E-5 | 11615.57 | 97.76% | 30.12% | 92.36% | 65.20% | 17.93% |
| L≥700 km | 6.7997295E-5 | 14706.47 | 99.45% | 124.72% | 86.47% | 99.74% | 65.19% |
| L≥800 km | 3.7318154E-5 | 26796.61 | 100.00% | 170.30% | 132.62% | 100.00% | 91.70% |
Along-Strike Slip Rates and Reductions
Paleoseismic Data Comparison
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| Download GeoJSON |
| Primary | Comparison |
|---|---|
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Paleo data comparison table. For the solution and comparison columns, text is bold if within 68% bounds, italicized if within 95% bounds, and otherwise plain text. Download CSV here.
| Site Name | Mapped Subsection ID | Mapped Parent Section | Constraint Mean Rate | 68% Bounds | Constraint 95% Bounds | Std. Dev | Solution Rate | z-score | Comparison Solution Rate | Comparison z-score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calaveras North | 511 | Calaveras (north) | 0.001305483 | [5.191898E-4, 0.0020917763] | [1.6608537E-4, 0.0033112583] | 7.8629324E-4 | 0.0013222027 | 0.021263983 | 0.0012408878 | -0.08215153 |
| Compton | 811 | Compton | 3.1685678E-4 | [1.0594772E-4, 5.2776583E-4] | [1.0513036E-4, 9.487666E-4] | 2.1090906E-4 | 9.2542316E-5 | -1.0635601 | 4.5487602E-4 | 0.6544017 |
| Elsinore-Glen Ivy | 1313 | Elsinore (Glen Ivy) | 0.004830918 | [0.0033520604, 0.006309775] | [0.002631579, 0.008547009] | 0.0014788574 | 0.0020489765 | -1.8811425 | 0.0027909086 | -1.3794496 |
| Elsinore-Julian | 1320 | Elsinore (Julian) | 3.2840722E-4 | [5.1921856E-5, 6.048926E-4] | [7.644267E-6, 0.0011135858] | 2.7648537E-4 | 4.7951125E-4 | 0.54651725 | 5.4263714E-4 | 0.77483267 |
| Elsinore-Temecula | 1328 | Elsinore (Temecula) | 8.6430425E-4 | [1.0757182E-4, 0.0016210367] | [1.376273E-4, 0.003164557] | 7.567324E-4 | 6.6509336E-4 | -0.26325136 | 0.0010034927 | 0.18393354 |
| Elsinore-Whittier | 5494 | Whittier | 3.3456006E-4 | [6.5853426E-5, 6.032667E-4] | [7.4245663E-6, 0.0010822511] | 2.6870662E-4 | 5.857578E-4 | 0.93484014 | 5.908371E-4 | 0.9537428 |
| Garlock-Central | 1486 | Garlock (center) | 6.142506E-4 | [1.9146162E-4, 0.0010370396] | [1.9920319E-4, 0.0018903592] | 4.22789E-4 | 2.3069601E-4 | -0.90720105 | 9.908358E-4 | 0.8907166 |
| Garlock-Western | 1514 | Garlock (west) | 6.6093856E-4 | [6.412676E-5, 0.0012577503] | [1.5728216E-4, 0.0025445293] | 5.9681176E-4 | 5.0285895E-4 | -0.2648734 | 9.1724086E-4 | 0.42945254 |
| Green Valley Mason Rd | 1745 | Green Valley | 0.002617801 | [0.0010188379, 0.004216764] | [3.1555697E-4, 0.0067114094] | 0.0015989632 | 1.3935605E-4 | -1.5500326 | 8.3803973E-4 | -1.1130722 |
| Hayward North | 1831 | Hayward (north) | 0.0026737968 | [0.0018872519, 0.0034603416] | [0.0015267176, 0.004672897] | 7.8654493E-4 | 0.0029676852 | 0.37364498 | 0.0028592127 | 0.23573454 |
| Hayward South-Tyson | 1841 | Hayward (south) | 0.0054054055 | [0.004490957, 0.0063198535] | [0.0038610038, 0.007518797] | 9.144483E-4 | 0.003633501 | -1.9376758 | 0.0045438437 | -0.9421655 |
| Little Salmon-Strongs | 2457 | Little Salmon (onshore) | 1.0924186E-4 | [1.1234016E-5, 2.072497E-4] | [1.7804683E-5, 4.0983607E-4] | 9.800785E-5 | 8.7996764E-4 | 7.8639193 | 4.862075E-4 | 3.8462799 |
| Mohawk Valley Fault Zone - Sulphur Creek | 2844 | Mohawk Valley | 1.7056115E-4 | [6.316872E-6, 3.3480543E-4] | [1.8698578E-5, 6.756757E-4] | 1.6424428E-4 | 1.9098535E-4 | 0.124352574 | 2.269986E-4 | 0.343619 |
| NSAF - Alder Creek | 3875 | San Andreas (North Coast) | 0.001310616 | [1.3946473E-4, 0.0024817672] | [3.237608E-5, 0.004716981] | 0.0011711513 | 0.0028982495 | 1.3556179 | 0.0030988164 | 1.526874 |
| NSAF - Santa Cruz Segment | 3958 | San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mountains) | 0.0078125 | [0.0052531413, 0.010371858] | [0.004255319, 0.014492754] | 0.0025593587 | 0.0056547145 | -0.84309614 | 0.0066358275 | -0.45975283 |
| NSAF - Fort Ross | 3863 | San Andreas (North Coast) | 0.0026809652 | [9.416762E-4, 0.004420254] | [3.4211428E-4, 0.00729927] | 0.0017392889 | 0.003654441 | 0.5596977 | 0.004063728 | 0.7950161 |
| NSAF - Vedanta | 3850 | San Andreas (North Coast) | 0.0033003301 | [0.002359722, 0.004240938] | [0.0019193857, 0.0056818184] | 9.406081E-4 | 0.0037111416 | 0.436751 | 0.0040769037 | 0.8256081 |
| NSAF - Noyo Canyon | 3887 | San Andreas (Offshore) | 0.0045871558 | [0.0037570274, 0.0054172846] | [0.003215434, 0.006535948] | 8.301284E-4 | 0.0045570415 | -0.036277134 | 0.0044026854 | -0.22221917 |
| Puente Hills | 3474 | Puente Hills (Santa Fe Springs) | 2.2016733E-4 | [-1.21142235E-4, 5.614769E-4] | [6.5038535E-6, 0.0013717421] | 3.4130955E-4 | 1.5790478E-5 | -0.598802 | 2.4904683E-4 | 0.08461379 |
| San Gregorio - North | 4168 | San Gregorio (north) | 0.0010559662 | [-0.0010304232, 0.0031423557] | [5.7803467E-5, 0.008403362] | 0.0020863896 | 0.0015323918 | 0.22834928 | 0.0011747249 | 0.05692066 |
| Rodgers Creek | 3663 | Rodgers Creek - Healdsburg | 0.0021008404 | [2.1396729E-4, 0.0039877133] | [8.609557E-5, 0.007633588] | 0.001886873 | 0.0018274308 | -0.14490086 | 0.0026295402 | 0.2801989 |
| Rose Canyon - Old Town | 3681 | Rose Canyon | 0.002020202 | [0.0010071308, 0.0030332732] | [8.2576385E-4, 0.004878049] | 0.0010130713 | 0.0010127331 | -0.99447 | 0.0012253451 | -0.7846012 |
| SJF - Hog Lake | 4202 | San Jacinto (Anza) | 0.0044444446 | [0.0035786435, 0.0053102453] | [0.003030303, 0.0064935065] | 8.658009E-4 | 0.004777328 | 0.38448077 | 0.004143111 | -0.3480403 |
| SJF - Mystic Lake | 4238 | San Jacinto (stepover) | 0.005050505 | [0.0040125567, 0.0060884533] | [0.0033670033, 0.007518797] | 0.0010379484 | 0.0053487583 | 0.2873488 | 0.0038457003 | -1.1607559 |
| SJF - Superstition | 4233 | San Jacinto (Superstition Mountain) | 0.0016207455 | [5.0425383E-6, 0.0032364486] | [2.9394473E-4, 0.006756757] | 0.001615703 | 0.0019812842 | 0.22314663 | 0.0021358544 | 0.31881407 |
| SSAF - Bidart | 3775 | San Andreas (Carrizo) | 0.008264462 | [0.005130854, 0.011398071] | [0.004132231, 0.016666668] | 0.0031336087 | 0.007217373 | -0.33414826 | 0.007815173 | -0.14337772 |
| SSAF - Burro Flats | 3936 | San Andreas (San Bernardino, south) | 0.003690037 | [0.0023510326, 0.0050290413] | [0.0018903592, 0.007246377] | 0.0013390044 | 8.5818494E-4 | -2.1148937 | 0.0028143064 | -0.65401614 |
| SSAF - Cabazon | 3951 | San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass - Garnet Hill) | 5.3676864E-4 | [2.144262E-4, 8.5911114E-4] | [7.117438E-5, 0.0013605442] | 3.2234247E-4 | 4.2200874E-5 | -1.534293 | 0.0013291535 | 2.458208 |
| SSAF - Coachella | 3804 | San Andreas (Coachella) | 0.004878049 | [0.0035344765, 0.0062216213] | [0.0028901733, 0.008264462] | 0.0013435724 | 0.004730685 | -0.10968035 | 0.004355048 | -0.38926134 |
| SSAF - Elizabeth Lake | 3833 | San Andreas (Mojave, south) | 0.0046296297 | [0.0023959496, 0.0068633095] | [0.0017035775, 0.010638298] | 0.00223368 | 0.0065025403 | 0.83848643 | 0.006060233 | 0.6404692 |
| SSAF - 18th Avenue | 3764 | San Andreas (Banning) | 0.0011600928 | [5.3503196E-4, 0.0017851536] | [1.5227654E-4, 0.0026525198] | 6.250608E-4 | 5.631862E-4 | -0.9549576 | 9.638029E-4 | -0.31403324 |
| SSAF - Frazier Mountain | 3773 | San Andreas (Big Bend) | 0.007194245 | [0.0047059166, 0.009682572] | [0.0037453184, 0.01369863] | 0.002488328 | 0.0065377085 | -0.26384622 | 0.006558309 | -0.25556755 |
| SSAF - Indio | 3804 | San Andreas (Coachella) | 0.0028901733 | [0.0014284198, 0.004351927] | [3.6416607E-4, 0.0062111802] | 0.0014617535 | 0.004730685 | 1.2591124 | 0.004355048 | 1.0021352 |
| SSAF - Pallett Creek | 3841 | San Andreas (Mojave, south) | 0.0056497175 | [0.0041358215, 0.0071636136] | [0.0033783785, 0.009433962] | 0.0015138959 | 0.007006065 | 0.89593166 | 0.0065378435 | 0.5866493 |
| SSAF - Pitman Canyon | 3933 | San Andreas (San Bernardino, north) | 0.0049751243 | [0.0033535894, 0.0065966593] | [0.002688172, 0.0091743115] | 0.0016215349 | 0.0031197292 | -1.1442215 | 0.0045854785 | -0.2402944 |
| SSAF - Plunge Creek | 3941 | San Andreas (San Bernardino, south) | 0.0031347962 | [8.083323E-4, 0.00546126] | [1.2810658E-4, 0.009433962] | 0.0023264638 | 0.0013458994 | -0.76893383 | 0.0028028395 | -0.14268728 |
| SSAF - Thousand Palms | 2779 | Mill Creek (San Andreas, north branch) | 0.002967359 | [0.0017052804, 0.0042294376] | [6.98812E-4, 0.0057471264] | 0.0012620786 | 0.0037429049 | 0.61449885 | 0.001863138 | -0.8749225 |
| SSAF - Wrightwood | 3845 | San Andreas (Mojave, south) | 0.007751938 | [0.0059898896, 0.009513986] | [0.005, 0.012048192] | 0.0017620482 | 0.007123435 | -0.35668904 | 0.007363487 | -0.22045416 |
| Bowden Canyon | 5229 | Wasatch (Brigham City) | 8.8339E-4 | [5.547425E-4, 0.0012120375] | [5.569E-4, 0.00187149] | 3.286475E-4 | 4.6553116E-4 | -1.2714499 | 7.3519297E-4 | -0.45093 |
| Box Elder Canyon | 5229 | Wasatch (Brigham City) | 8.7032E-4 | [7.66305E-4, 9.74335E-4] | [7.2289E-4, 0.00113895] | 1.04015E-4 | 4.6553116E-4 | -3.8916392 | 7.3519297E-4 | -1.2991109 |
| Rice Creek | 5277 | Wasatch (Weber) | 7.3828E-4 | [6.834675E-4, 7.930925E-4] | [6.0634E-4, 8.2559E-4] | 5.48125E-5 | 4.887277E-4 | -4.552836 | 6.6541403E-4 | -1.3293682 |
| Garner Canyon | 5277 | Wasatch (Weber) | 7.9533E-4 | [7.1837E-4, 8.7229E-4] | [6.7416E-4, 9.82E-4] | 7.696E-5 | 4.887277E-4 | -3.983918 | 6.6541403E-4 | -1.6880976 |
| East Ogden | 5278 | Wasatch (Weber) | 8.5861E-4 | [7.44735E-4, 9.72485E-4] | [6.9525E-4, 0.00115075] | 1.13875E-4 | 5.056048E-4 | -3.099936 | 7.208517E-4 | -1.2097324 |
| Kaysville | 5281 | Wasatch (Weber) | 5.805E-4 | [5.001375E-4, 6.608625E-4] | [4.9399E-4, 8.1544E-4] | 8.03625E-5 | 3.3712582E-4 | -3.0284545 | 5.473443E-4 | -0.41257727 |
| Penrose Drive | 5239 | Wasatch (East Bench) | 6.1874E-4 | [5.672125E-4, 6.702675E-4] | [5.001E-4, 7.0621E-4] | 5.15275E-5 | 8.513917E-5 | -10.355652 | 6.0538214E-4 | -0.2592369 |
| Little Cottonwood Canyon | 5273 | Wasatch (Salt Lake City, south) | 7.1565E-4 | [6.593325E-4, 7.719675E-4] | [5.8445E-4, 8.0972E-4] | 5.63175E-5 | 4.2037145E-4 | -5.243105 | 6.7274616E-4 | -0.76182127 |
| South Fork Dry Creek | 5274 | Wasatch (Salt Lake City, south) | 8.2554E-4 | [7.56005E-4, 8.95075E-4] | [7.1327E-4, 9.9141E-4] | 6.9535E-5 | 3.6879195E-4 | -6.5686064 | 6.532988E-4 | -2.477043 |
| Corner Canyon | 5274 | Wasatch (Salt Lake City, south) | 0.00115407 | [0.0010337, 0.00127444] | [0.001, 0.00148148] | 1.2037E-4 | 3.6879195E-4 | -6.5238686 | 6.532988E-4 | -4.1602654 |
| Alpine | 5262 | Wasatch (Provo, north) | 8.5455E-4 | [7.623025E-4, 9.467975E-4] | [7.1891E-4, 0.0010879] | 9.22475E-5 | 1.868094E-4 | -7.2385764 | 5.2651396E-4 | -3.5560424 |
| American Fork | 5263 | Wasatch (Provo, north) | 5.1885E-4 | [4.75835E-4, 5.61865E-4] | [4.3757E-4, 6.0963E-4] | 4.3015E-5 | 1.8914763E-4 | -7.664823 | 5.437032E-4 | 0.57778 |
| Mapleton | 5267 | Wasatch (Provo, south) | 7.9507E-4 | [7.5473E-4, 8.3541E-4] | [7.2556E-4, 8.8692E-4] | 4.034E-5 | 7.4032764E-4 | -1.3570238 | 6.999286E-4 | -2.3584878 |
| Spring Lake | 5257 | Wasatch (Nephi, north) | 8.2525E-4 | [7.56035E-4, 8.94465E-4] | [7.0909E-4, 9.8595E-4] | 6.9215E-5 | 6.448086E-4 | -2.6069703 | 6.487184E-4 | -2.5504825 |
| North Creek | 5260 | Wasatch (Nephi, south) | 8.9989E-4 | [8.366625E-4, 9.631175E-4] | [7.874E-4, 0.00104031] | 6.32275E-5 | 6.648346E-4 | -3.7176137 | 8.43619E-4 | -0.8899765 |
| Willow Creek | 5261 | Wasatch (Nephi, south) | 8.4788E-4 | [6.96355E-4, 9.99405E-4] | [6.4861E-4, 0.00125471] | 1.51525E-4 | 4.869621E-4 | -2.3819034 | 6.69154E-4 | -1.1795151 |
| Red Canyon | 5261 | Wasatch (Nephi, south) | 4.7416E-4 | [3.168625E-4, 6.314575E-4] | [2.7252E-4, 9.0171E-4] | 1.572975E-4 | 4.869621E-4 | 0.08138774 | 6.69154E-4 | 1.2396508 |
Jump Counts Over Distance
Supra-seismogenic Jump Counts
| As Discretized | Rate Weighted |
|---|---|
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M≥7 Jump Counts
| As Discretized | Rate Weighted |
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Max Jump Distance Distribution
Cumulative Jump Distance Distribution
Fault Segmentation
The following plots show implied segmentation from the rates of this fault system solution.
Connection Rates
This shows the rate at which each connection is taken.
| DM: NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model | Full Tree |
|---|---|
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| Download GeoJSON | Download GeoJSON |
Connection Passthrough Rates
Passthrough rates refer to the ratio of the jumping rate to the rates on either side of the jump. The denominator of that ratio can be either the minimum, maximum, or average of the subsection rates on either side of the jump. Each choice of denomiator is plotted separately.
| DM: NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model | Full Tree |
|---|---|
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| Download GeoJSON | Download GeoJSON |
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Connection Passthrough Rates vs Distance
This plots passthrough rates versus distance, either comparing with the relationship established in Shaw and Dieterich (2007), or distance-dependent segmentation models for this model's logic tree.
| Linear | Log10 |
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Comparison Linear | Comparison Log10 |
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Download CSV files: DM: NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model Full Tree
Special Fault Detail Pages
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| Download GeoJSON |
| Fault Section |
|---|
| Calaveras |
| Cedar Mountains |
| Elsinore |
| Fairview Peak |
| Garlock |
| Hayward-Rodgers Creek |
| Hebgen Lake |
| Hector Mine |
| Landers |
| Lost River |
| Pleasant Valley |
| San Andreas |
| San Jacinto |
| Sonora |
| Wasatch |