Logic Tree Misfits

Mean Absolute Deviation Summary
Standard Deviation Summary
Constraint Summaries
Deformation Model
Scaling Relationship
Supra-Seismogenic b-value
Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties
Segmentation Model

Mean Absolute Deviation Summary

Mean Absolute Deviation Average Uncertainty-Weighted Constraint Fits

Constraint	Average Mean Absolute Deviation	Best Fitting	Worst Fitting	Ratio to All Uncert-Weighted Constraints
All Uncertainty-Weighted Average	0.60586584	0.19066872	2.0828326	1.0
Uncertain Slip Rate	0.54336816	0.16906978	1.5602381	0.9055534
Paleoseismic Event Rate	0.8477704	0.13956724	4.687816	1.3125271
Uncertain Parkfield	0.5079019	0.08405323	1.8059237	0.81656545
Uncertain MFD Equality	0.59677386	0.3082461	1.2747046	1.0789869
Uncertain Subsection Total Nucleation Rates	0.5335149	0.16317786	1.5474101	0.88636714

Sorted branch values: A list of best and worst-fitting branches, sorted by how well they fit all uncertainthy-weighted constraints on average.

Rank	Value	Deformation Model	Scaling Relationship	Supra-Seismogenic b-value	Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties	Segmentation Model
1	0.19066872	Shen-Bird	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	UnderFit	None
2	0.20418602	Shen-Bird	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	UnderFit	LowSeg
3	0.20478554	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.2, SqrtLen	b=1.0	UnderFit	None
4	0.20938827	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.2, SqrtLen	b=1.0	UnderFit	LowSeg
5	0.20981635	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	UnderFit	LowSeg
...	...	...	...	...	...	...
1796	1.896545	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	OverFit	LowSeg
1797	1.8978317	Evans	LogA+4.1	b=0.0	OverFit	None
1798	1.9009963	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=0.25	OverFit	None
1799	1.9449233	Evans	LogA+4.2	b=0.0	OverFit	None
1800	2.0828326	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	OverFit	None

Distribution of branch Mean Absolute Deviation values, averaged accross constraints:

Average branch choice values: A list of average fits across all uncertainthy-weighted constraints for each logic tree branch choice.

Choice	Mean	Min	Max
Deformation Model
NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	0.9949944	0.7893531	1.6982288
NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	0.6264123	0.54110914	0.82119423
NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	0.6068693	0.52350545	0.8962307
NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	0.5476251	0.43927324	0.7705993
NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model	0.62284124	0.5245107	0.8812659
Scaling Relationship
LogA+4.1, From Moment	0.6224063	0.5480373	0.8608665
LogA+4.2, From Moment	0.61042714	0.52985305	0.85963315
LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	0.60280764	0.5249471	0.84050345
LogA+4.3, From Moment	0.6114413	0.5184172	0.8944034
Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	0.5666707	0.43545213	0.8041431
Width Limited, From Moment	0.621442	0.4907047	0.8270727
Supra-Seismogenic b-value
b=0.0	0.90349394	0.8414657	1.040272
b=0.25	0.71101373	0.6287496	0.9155321
b=0.5	0.56445736	0.44917476	0.82092106
b=0.75	0.46068144	0.32963982	0.75547755
b=1.0	0.38968277	0.2577186	0.70664907
Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties
Even-Fit Paleo Data	0.5747178	0.4993049	0.71206313
Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	0.8047364	0.59927386	1.5790129
Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)	0.43814334	0.25223508	0.589111
Segmentation Model
High Segmentation	0.6001898	0.50931334	0.85103136
Low Segmentation	0.60364	0.49762177	0.8412675
Middle Segmentation	0.6006175	0.49936652	0.84233946
None	0.64309067	0.549834	0.86728597

Uncertain Slip Rate, Mean Absolute Deviation Summary

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Sorted branch values: A list of best and worst-fitting branches, sorted by how well they fit the Uncertain Slip Rate constraint.

Rank	Value	Deformation Model	Scaling Relationship	Supra-Seismogenic b-value	Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties	Segmentation Model
1	0.16906978	Shen-Bird	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	UnderFit	None
2	0.18326603	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	UnderFit	LowSeg
3	0.18442406	Shen-Bird	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	UnderFit	LowSeg
4	0.18574648	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	UnderFit	None
5	0.18679042	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	UnderFit	LowSeg
...	...	...	...	...	...	...
1796	1.4556128	Evans	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=0.0	OverFit	None
1797	1.4910868	Evans	LogA+4.2, SqrtLen	b=0.0	OverFit	None
1798	1.526484	Evans	LogA+4.2	b=0.0	OverFit	None
1799	1.5410904	Evans	LogA+4.1	b=0.0	OverFit	None
1800	1.5602381	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	OverFit	None

Uncertain Slip Rate misfit Mean Absolute Deviation for each logic tree branch choice

Choice	Mean	Min	Max
Deformation Model
NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	0.83519304	0.38549393	1.5602381
NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	0.57537454	0.19147877	1.2074529
NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	0.5365816	0.18679042	1.1964266
NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	0.48564422	0.16906978	0.92304164
NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model	0.5585446	0.18785253	1.250642
Scaling Relationship
LogA+4.1, From Moment	0.5641139	0.19686027	1.5410904
LogA+4.2, From Moment	0.5503154	0.18796296	1.526484
LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	0.5445855	0.18882889	1.4910868
LogA+4.3, From Moment	0.5445026	0.18326603	1.5602381
Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	0.49408436	0.16906978	1.4556128
Width Limited, From Moment	0.5626074	0.20183408	1.4476004
Supra-Seismogenic b-value
b=0.0	0.88150346	0.6133817	1.5602381
b=0.25	0.6622065	0.44437593	1.3424442
b=0.5	0.4955611	0.31388873	1.1578203
b=0.75	0.37772292	0.2184047	1.0110868
b=1.0	0.29984695	0.16906978	0.9061886
Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties
Even-Fit Paleo Data	0.5330495	0.22433938	1.3114655
Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	0.6256638	0.3160268	1.5602381
Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)	0.47139117	0.16906978	1.2679648
Segmentation Model
High Segmentation	0.5364012	0.19352438	1.3035033
Low Segmentation	0.5420163	0.18326603	1.4013402
Middle Segmentation	0.5378655	0.1870951	1.3585513
None	0.58348083	0.16906978	1.5602381

Paleoseismic Event Rate, Mean Absolute Deviation Summary

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Sorted branch values: A list of best and worst-fitting branches, sorted by how well they fit the Paleoseismic Event Rate constraint.

Rank	Value	Deformation Model	Scaling Relationship	Supra-Seismogenic b-value	Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties	Segmentation Model
1	0.13956724	Shen-Bird	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	UnderFit	None
2	0.15281188	Shen-Bird	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	UnderFit	LowSeg
3	0.1532647	Geologic	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	UnderFit	None
4	0.16969487	Shen-Bird	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	UnderFit	MidSeg
5	0.17062868	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.2, SqrtLen	b=1.0	UnderFit	None
...	...	...	...	...	...	...
1796	4.1428914	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=0.75	OverFit	None
1797	4.1809278	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	OverFit	LowSeg
1798	4.2604504	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=0.5	OverFit	None
1799	4.4295774	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=0.25	OverFit	None
1800	4.687816	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	OverFit	None

Paleoseismic Event Rate misfit Mean Absolute Deviation for each logic tree branch choice

Choice	Mean	Min	Max
Deformation Model
NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	1.6982288	0.34420452	4.687816
NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	0.82119423	0.1532647	2.0010853
NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	0.8962307	0.24113482	2.0949583
NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	0.7705993	0.13956724	1.7491778
NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model	0.8812659	0.20730677	2.0781415
Scaling Relationship
LogA+4.1, From Moment	0.8608665	0.17352429	3.5676768
LogA+4.2, From Moment	0.85963315	0.1749752	4.104291
LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	0.84050345	0.17062868	3.4663563
LogA+4.3, From Moment	0.8944034	0.1888749	4.687816
Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	0.8041431	0.13956724	3.555005
Width Limited, From Moment	0.8270727	0.17198999	3.2898455
Supra-Seismogenic b-value
b=0.0	1.040272	0.1749752	4.687816
b=0.25	0.9155321	0.17680289	4.4295774
b=0.5	0.82092106	0.18196015	4.2604504
b=0.75	0.75547755	0.17334735	4.1428914
b=1.0	0.70664907	0.13956724	4.0574327
Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties
Even-Fit Paleo Data	0.71206313	0.33694386	2.4175982
Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	1.5790129	1.3005127	4.687816
Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)	0.25223508	0.13956724	0.40170425
Segmentation Model
High Segmentation	0.85103136	0.18181403	3.9147468
Low Segmentation	0.8412675	0.15281188	4.1809278
Middle Segmentation	0.84233946	0.16969487	4.030414
None	0.86728597	0.13956724	4.687816

Uncertain Parkfield, Mean Absolute Deviation Summary

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Sorted branch values: A list of best and worst-fitting branches, sorted by how well they fit the Uncertain Parkfield constraint.

Rank	Value	Deformation Model	Scaling Relationship	Supra-Seismogenic b-value	Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties	Segmentation Model
1	0.08405323	Shen-Bird	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	UnderFit	None
2	0.097623296	Geologic	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	UnderFit	None
3	0.10035715	Zeng	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	UnderFit	None
4	0.10193816	Shen-Bird	WdthLmtd	b=1.0	UnderFit	None
5	0.10346252	Shen-Bird	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	UnderFit	LowSeg
...	...	...	...	...	...	...
1796	1.742556	Pollitz	LogA+4.2, SqrtLen	b=0.0	EvenFit	None
1797	1.7443461	Pollitz	LogA+4.2, SqrtLen	b=0.0	UnderFit	None
1798	1.758095	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	EvenFit	None
1799	1.7806177	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	UnderFit	None
1800	1.8059237	Pollitz	LogA+4.2, SqrtLen	b=0.0	OverFit	None

Uncertain Parkfield misfit Mean Absolute Deviation for each logic tree branch choice

Choice	Mean	Min	Max
Deformation Model
NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	0.7893531	0.30637014	1.6018695
NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	0.54110914	0.097623296	1.2796441
NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	0.53769517	0.124179766	1.8059237
NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	0.43927324	0.08405323	1.2746385
NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model	0.5245107	0.10035715	1.3804806
Scaling Relationship
LogA+4.1, From Moment	0.5480373	0.12241518	1.6018695
LogA+4.2, From Moment	0.52985305	0.11438276	1.6217164
LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	0.5249471	0.11935392	1.8059237
LogA+4.3, From Moment	0.5184172	0.109915994	1.7806177
Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	0.43545213	0.08405323	1.4637948
Width Limited, From Moment	0.4907047	0.10193816	1.4384594
Supra-Seismogenic b-value
b=0.0	0.8742268	0.503098	1.8059237
b=0.25	0.6287496	0.3314103	1.3539995
b=0.5	0.44917476	0.20812526	1.1269433
b=0.75	0.32963982	0.11734356	0.91932625
b=1.0	0.2577186	0.08405323	0.7847922
Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties
Even-Fit Paleo Data	0.4993049	0.16045064	1.758095
Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	0.61209255	0.22756933	1.8059237
Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)	0.4123083	0.08405323	1.7806177
Segmentation Model
High Segmentation	0.50931334	0.14980698	1.3100306
Low Segmentation	0.49762177	0.10346252	1.421531
Middle Segmentation	0.49936652	0.11784607	1.3850814
None	0.549834	0.08405323	1.8059237

Uncertain MFD Equality, Mean Absolute Deviation Summary

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Sorted branch values: A list of best and worst-fitting branches, sorted by how well they fit the Uncertain MFD Equality constraint.

Rank	Value	Deformation Model	Scaling Relationship	Supra-Seismogenic b-value	Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties	Segmentation Model
1	0.3082461	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	UnderFit	HighSeg
2	0.31635383	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	UnderFit	MidSeg
3	0.32389218	Pollitz	LogA+4.2	b=1.0	UnderFit	HighSeg
4	0.32398343	Pollitz	LogA+4.2, SqrtLen	b=1.0	UnderFit	HighSeg
5	0.32524222	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	UnderFit	LowSeg
...	...	...	...	...	...	...
1796	1.2467089	Evans	LogA+4.1	b=0.0	OverFit	None
1797	1.2470819	Evans	LogA+4.2, SqrtLen	b=0.0	OverFit	None
1798	1.2561679	Evans	LogA+4.2	b=0.0	OverFit	None
1799	1.2626215	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	OverFit	None
1800	1.2747046	Evans	WdthLmtd	b=0.0	OverFit	None

Uncertain MFD Equality misfit Mean Absolute Deviation for each logic tree branch choice

Choice	Mean	Min	Max
Deformation Model
NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	0.84683084	0.4820685	1.2747046
NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	0.62894374	0.3573081	1.1192973
NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	0.54033357	0.3082461	0.89115703
NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	0.564961	0.34272337	0.9223854
NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model	0.6009302	0.353336	1.015523
Scaling Relationship
LogA+4.1, From Moment	0.58544487	0.34174266	1.2467089
LogA+4.2, From Moment	0.5740816	0.32389218	1.2561679
LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	0.5707106	0.32398343	1.2470819
LogA+4.3, From Moment	0.5669553	0.3082461	1.2626215
Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	0.6134448	0.36320892	1.2123995
Width Limited, From Moment	0.6700059	0.38509125	1.2747046
Supra-Seismogenic b-value
b=0.0	0.8414657	0.6826429	1.2747046
b=0.25	0.69350654	0.5488931	1.1255796
b=0.5	0.57209545	0.44747472	1.0239459
b=0.75	0.476507	0.36689353	0.92323875
b=1.0	0.4002946	0.3082461	0.7906545
Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties
Even-Fit Paleo Data	0.60193676	0.33716983	1.2195548
Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	0.59927386	0.3349272	1.2747046
Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)	0.589111	0.3082461	1.179232
Segmentation Model
High Segmentation	0.5774727	0.3082461	1.1721438
Low Segmentation	0.6055869	0.32524222	1.1751357
Middle Segmentation	0.59518296	0.31635383	1.2296256
None	0.6418241	0.33990824	1.2747046

Uncertain Subsection Total Nucleation Rates, Mean Absolute Deviation Summary

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Sorted branch values: A list of best and worst-fitting branches, sorted by how well they fit the Uncertain Subsection Total Nucleation Rates constraint.

Rank	Value	Deformation Model	Scaling Relationship	Supra-Seismogenic b-value	Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties	Segmentation Model
1	0.16317786	Shen-Bird	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	UnderFit	None
2	0.17173639	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	UnderFit	LowSeg
3	0.17381206	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	UnderFit	LowSeg
4	0.17491508	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	UnderFit	MidSeg
5	0.1749328	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	UnderFit	None
...	...	...	...	...	...	...
1796	1.4519545	Evans	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=0.0	OverFit	None
1797	1.481021	Evans	LogA+4.2, SqrtLen	b=0.0	OverFit	None
1798	1.5112312	Evans	LogA+4.2	b=0.0	OverFit	None
1799	1.5318129	Evans	LogA+4.1	b=0.0	OverFit	None
1800	1.5474101	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	OverFit	None

Uncertain Subsection Total Nucleation Rates misfit Mean Absolute Deviation for each logic tree branch choice

Choice	Mean	Min	Max
Deformation Model
NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	0.8053663	0.3539337	1.5474101
NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	0.56543976	0.18002811	1.1967933
NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	0.52350545	0.17381206	1.1668494
NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	0.47764772	0.16317786	0.9236841
NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model	0.54895484	0.1824836	1.2444394
Scaling Relationship
LogA+4.1, From Moment	0.55356914	0.18787618	1.5318129
LogA+4.2, From Moment	0.5382524	0.17756501	1.5112312
LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	0.53329146	0.1788585	1.481021
LogA+4.3, From Moment	0.53292793	0.17173639	1.5474101
Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	0.4862292	0.16317786	1.4519545
Width Limited, From Moment	0.5568194	0.19625032	1.4408591
Supra-Seismogenic b-value
b=0.0	0.8800017	0.61585206	1.5474101
b=0.25	0.65507406	0.4433059	1.3209807
b=0.5	0.48453432	0.31242946	1.1103089
b=0.75	0.36405987	0.21453232	0.91638833
b=1.0	0.28390464	0.16317786	0.7944305
Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties
Even-Fit Paleo Data	0.5272348	0.21834157	1.3026099
Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	0.60763884	0.28941733	1.5474101
Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)	0.46567112	0.16317786	1.258999
Segmentation Model
High Segmentation	0.5267304	0.18217552	1.2633622
Low Segmentation	0.53170747	0.17173639	1.3898293
Middle Segmentation	0.52833325	0.17491508	1.3392825
None	0.5730284	0.16317786	1.5474101

Laplacian Smoothing (select parents), Mean Absolute Deviation Summary

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Sorted branch values: A list of best and worst-fitting branches, sorted by how well they fit the Laplacian Smoothing (select parents) constraint.

Rank	Value	Deformation Model	Scaling Relationship	Supra-Seismogenic b-value	Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties	Segmentation Model
1	4.6847626E-6	Zeng	LogA+4.2	b=1.0	UnderFit	HighSeg
2	5.197119E-6	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.2	b=1.0	UnderFit	HighSeg
3	5.2424534E-6	Geologic	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	UnderFit	HighSeg
4	5.447359E-6	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	UnderFit	HighSeg
5	5.548265E-6	Zeng	WdthLmtd	b=1.0	UnderFit	HighSeg
...	...	...	...	...	...	...
1796	1.358917E-4	Evans	LogA+4.1	b=0.25	OverFit	HighSeg
1797	1.368931E-4	Evans	LogA+4.1	b=0.5	OverFit	HighSeg
1798	1.3707216E-4	Evans	LogA+4.2, SqrtLen	b=1.0	OverFit	HighSeg
1799	1.3980152E-4	Evans	LogA+4.1	b=0.75	OverFit	HighSeg
1800	1.4354888E-4	Evans	LogA+4.1	b=1.0	OverFit	HighSeg

Laplacian Smoothing (select parents) misfit Mean Absolute Deviation for each logic tree branch choice

Choice	Mean	Min	Max
Deformation Model
NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	7.015808E-5	2.3315977E-5	1.4354888E-4
NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	3.1444495E-5	5.2424534E-6	7.117594E-5
NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	5.3588414E-5	6.013973E-6	1.2935857E-4
NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	2.9966539E-5	5.197119E-6	6.010291E-5
NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model	4.5163884E-5	4.6847626E-6	1.2575412E-4
Scaling Relationship
LogA+4.1, From Moment	4.4928915E-5	5.628657E-6	1.4354888E-4
LogA+4.2, From Moment	4.0077433E-5	4.6847626E-6	1.2844134E-4
LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	4.384619E-5	5.7043653E-6	1.3707216E-4
LogA+4.3, From Moment	3.7670463E-5	5.2424534E-6	1.2473582E-4
Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	3.2704695E-5	5.615913E-6	1.2147137E-4
Width Limited, From Moment	2.8217533E-5	5.548265E-6	9.0669855E-5
Supra-Seismogenic b-value
b=0.0	4.0855346E-5	1.2981371E-5	1.3360062E-4
b=0.25	4.0504474E-5	9.172331E-6	1.358917E-4
b=0.5	3.843994E-5	6.782769E-6	1.368931E-4
b=0.75	3.5492463E-5	5.6426106E-6	1.3980152E-4
b=1.0	3.424547E-5	4.6847626E-6	1.4354888E-4
Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties
Even-Fit Paleo Data	3.930223E-5	1.6188811E-5	7.244114E-5
Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	6.191963E-5	2.4303912E-5	1.4354888E-4
Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)	1.2500754E-5	4.6847626E-6	5.9450802E-5
Segmentation Model
High Segmentation	3.936532E-5	4.6847626E-6	1.4354888E-4
Low Segmentation	3.676438E-5	5.5560977E-6	1.2354732E-4
Middle Segmentation	3.799073E-5	5.673205E-6	1.2855252E-4
None	3.5570934E-5	6.698306E-6	1.1938455E-4

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Minimum from 2 models, Mean Absolute Deviation Summary

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Sorted branch values: A list of best and worst-fitting branches, sorted by how well they fit the Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Minimum from 2 models constraint.

Rank	Value	Deformation Model	Scaling Relationship	Supra-Seismogenic b-value	Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties	Segmentation Model
1	0.0	Geologic	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	OverFit	LowSeg
2	0.0	Shen-Bird	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	EvenFit	MidSeg
3	3.6130457E-27	Geologic	LogA+4.3	b=0.75	OverFit	LowSeg
4	1.5354684E-17	Pollitz	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	OverFit	MidSeg
5	2.3296082E-16	Pollitz	LogA+4.1	b=1.0	OverFit	LowSeg
...	...	...	...	...	...	...
1346	1.5419597E-9	Evans	LogA+4.2	b=0.5	OverFit	HighSeg
1347	1.5538489E-9	Evans	LogA+4.2	b=1.0	OverFit	HighSeg
1348	1.5899113E-9	Evans	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=0.0	OverFit	HighSeg
1349	2.2865063E-9	Evans	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=0.25	OverFit	HighSeg
1350	2.2984215E-9	Evans	LogA+4.2, SqrtLen	b=0.5	OverFit	HighSeg

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Minimum from 2 models misfit Mean Absolute Deviation for each logic tree branch choice

Choice	Mean	Min	Max
Deformation Model
NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	1.9252407E-10	4.6771446E-13	2.2984215E-9
NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	3.301634E-11	0.0	2.7868827E-10
NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	1.4629681E-11	1.5354684E-17	9.8721635E-11
NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	1.0383923E-11	0.0	6.3879506E-11
NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model	2.1560094E-11	3.4426916E-13	1.5183374E-10
Scaling Relationship
LogA+4.1, From Moment	2.4364146E-11	2.3296082E-16	1.5085099E-9
LogA+4.2, From Moment	2.3129464E-11	5.882089E-16	1.5538489E-9
LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	2.381775E-11	3.6779224E-14	2.2984215E-9
LogA+4.3, From Moment	2.5451417E-11	3.6130457E-27	1.0824478E-9
Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	1.8221653E-11	0.0	2.2865063E-9
Width Limited, From Moment	2.7978708E-11	2.5440145E-14	6.736806E-10
Supra-Seismogenic b-value
b=0.0	5.152117E-11	1.4701073E-12	1.5899113E-9
b=0.25	2.6334608E-11	5.724526E-13	2.2865063E-9
b=0.5	1.8479612E-11	2.652727E-13	2.2984215E-9
b=0.75	1.1228253E-11	3.6130457E-27	1.0824478E-9
b=1.0	1.1572306E-11	0.0	1.5538489E-9
Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties
Even-Fit Paleo Data	1.8002162E-11	0.0	1.755772E-10
Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	3.304165E-11	0.0	2.2984215E-9
Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)	2.0437759E-11	1.2983488E-13	2.3294294E-10
Segmentation Model
High Segmentation	2.7715174E-11	1.4213082E-14	2.2984215E-9
Low Segmentation	1.8606857E-11	0.0	1.3539432E-9
Middle Segmentation	2.3419428E-11	0.0	1.0824478E-9
None	(N/A)	(N/A)	(N/A)

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.95, R₀=3], Mean Absolute Deviation Summary

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Sorted branch values: A list of best and worst-fitting branches, sorted by how well they fit the Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.95, R₀=3] constraint.

Rank	Value	Deformation Model	Scaling Relationship	Supra-Seismogenic b-value	Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties	Segmentation Model
1	5.933976E-11	Zeng	LogA+4.2, SqrtLen	b=0.75	UnderFit	MidSeg
2	6.104902E-11	Geologic	WdthLmtd	b=1.0	UnderFit	MidSeg
3	6.6546255E-11	Evans	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	OverFit	MidSeg
4	6.663954E-11	Evans	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=0.75	EvenFit	MidSeg
5	6.700844E-11	Zeng	LogA+4.2, SqrtLen	b=1.0	UnderFit	MidSeg
...	...	...	...	...	...	...
446	1.7307537E-8	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=0.25	EvenFit	MidSeg
447	1.7618792E-8	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=0.25	UnderFit	MidSeg
448	2.0405006E-8	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	OverFit	MidSeg
449	2.3000192E-8	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	UnderFit	MidSeg
450	2.6547516E-8	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	EvenFit	MidSeg

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.95, R₀=3] misfit Mean Absolute Deviation for each logic tree branch choice

Choice	Mean	Min	Max
Deformation Model
NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	6.7502737E-10	6.6546255E-11	3.712884E-9
NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	4.094274E-9	6.104902E-11	1.710582E-8
NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	7.4961015E-9	1.7359281E-9	2.6547516E-8
NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	9.639848E-10	1.6058911E-10	3.7005259E-9
NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model	8.4233964E-10	5.933976E-11	4.0395283E-9
Scaling Relationship
LogA+4.1, From Moment	1.886943E-9	7.9288326E-11	1.1110833E-8
LogA+4.2, From Moment	2.5284008E-9	6.76253E-11	1.6582966E-8
LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	1.7729516E-9	5.933976E-11	1.0619902E-8
LogA+4.3, From Moment	3.466935E-9	6.8814426E-11	2.6547516E-8
Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	2.1378466E-9	6.6546255E-11	1.3777175E-8
Width Limited, From Moment	1.7412654E-9	6.104902E-11	9.177649E-9
Supra-Seismogenic b-value
b=0.0	5.2653752E-9	3.520698E-10	2.6547516E-8
b=0.25	3.1351615E-9	2.636223E-10	1.7618792E-8
b=0.5	1.558603E-9	1.0583182E-10	1.0995404E-8
b=0.75	8.395871E-10	5.933976E-11	5.9918683E-9
b=1.0	4.798919E-10	6.104902E-11	4.2317163E-9
Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties
Even-Fit Paleo Data	2.2764162E-9	6.663954E-11	2.6547516E-8
Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	2.2601707E-9	6.6546255E-11	2.0405006E-8
Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)	2.2305844E-9	5.933976E-11	2.3000192E-8
Segmentation Model
High Segmentation	(N/A)	(N/A)	(N/A)
Low Segmentation	(N/A)	(N/A)	(N/A)
Middle Segmentation	2.2557238E-9	5.933976E-11	2.6547516E-8
None	(N/A)	(N/A)	(N/A)

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.65, R₀=2], Mean Absolute Deviation Summary

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Sorted branch values: A list of best and worst-fitting branches, sorted by how well they fit the Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.65, R₀=2] constraint.

Rank	Value	Deformation Model	Scaling Relationship	Supra-Seismogenic b-value	Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties	Segmentation Model
1	1.2431355E-10	Evans	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	OverFit	HighSeg
2	1.265129E-10	Evans	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	EvenFit	HighSeg
3	2.0691925E-10	Evans	LogA+4.2, SqrtLen	b=1.0	EvenFit	HighSeg
4	2.391663E-10	Evans	WdthLmtd	b=1.0	EvenFit	HighSeg
5	2.502123E-10	Evans	WdthLmtd	b=1.0	OverFit	HighSeg
...	...	...	...	...	...	...
446	1.5298457E-7	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=0.25	UnderFit	HighSeg
447	1.6954958E-7	Pollitz	LogA+4.2	b=0.0	OverFit	HighSeg
448	1.7373159E-7	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	UnderFit	HighSeg
449	1.9112234E-7	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	OverFit	HighSeg
450	2.0145517E-7	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	EvenFit	HighSeg

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.65, R₀=2] misfit Mean Absolute Deviation for each logic tree branch choice

Choice	Mean	Min	Max
Deformation Model
NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	3.5679848E-9	1.2431355E-10	1.5809773E-8
NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	2.6325676E-8	6.8195016E-10	1.2219236E-7
NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	7.5138914E-8	1.8684354E-8	2.0145517E-7
NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	1.0644786E-8	3.0897191E-9	3.2854306E-8
NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model	7.0597E-9	8.2966095E-10	2.5292442E-8
Scaling Relationship
LogA+4.1, From Moment	1.6784858E-8	3.2827363E-10	1.2566603E-7
LogA+4.2, From Moment	2.2072399E-8	8.7269586E-10	1.6954958E-7
LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	1.5942575E-8	2.0691925E-10	1.4210116E-7
LogA+4.3, From Moment	2.8106092E-8	7.5196893E-10	2.0145517E-7
Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	1.5701216E-8	1.2431355E-10	1.3086783E-7
Width Limited, From Moment	1.2948363E-8	2.391663E-10	8.15198E-8
Supra-Seismogenic b-value
b=0.0	4.2740616E-8	3.9081782E-9	2.0145517E-7
b=0.25	2.4259208E-8	1.8938124E-9	1.5298457E-7
b=0.5	1.312711E-8	5.084019E-10	1.01501605E-7
b=0.75	7.894837E-9	3.3412897E-10	7.192624E-8
b=1.0	4.941149E-9	1.2431355E-10	4.2512557E-8
Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties
Even-Fit Paleo Data	1.8683648E-8	1.265129E-10	2.0145517E-7
Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	1.8534365E-8	1.2431355E-10	1.9112234E-7
Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)	1.8559737E-8	3.3412897E-10	1.7373159E-7
Segmentation Model
High Segmentation	1.8592583E-8	1.2431355E-10	2.0145517E-7
Low Segmentation	(N/A)	(N/A)	(N/A)
Middle Segmentation	(N/A)	(N/A)	(N/A)
None	(N/A)	(N/A)	(N/A)

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=2.12, R₀=4], Mean Absolute Deviation Summary

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Sorted branch values: A list of best and worst-fitting branches, sorted by how well they fit the Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=2.12, R₀=4] constraint.

Rank	Value	Deformation Model	Scaling Relationship	Supra-Seismogenic b-value	Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties	Segmentation Model
1	8.299979E-14	Zeng	LogA+4.2	b=1.0	EvenFit	LowSeg
2	5.493283E-12	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.2, SqrtLen	b=1.0	UnderFit	LowSeg
3	1.7161259E-11	Geologic	LogA+4.2	b=1.0	UnderFit	LowSeg
4	1.8361807E-11	Zeng	LogA+4.1	b=1.0	OverFit	LowSeg
5	1.8589321E-11	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.1	b=0.75	OverFit	LowSeg
...	...	...	...	...	...	...
446	6.7231976E-9	Pollitz	LogA+4.2	b=0.0	OverFit	LowSeg
447	7.133846E-9	Geologic	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	UnderFit	LowSeg
448	7.455185E-9	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	UnderFit	LowSeg
449	8.505965E-9	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	OverFit	LowSeg
450	8.706884E-9	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	EvenFit	LowSeg

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=2.12, R₀=4] misfit Mean Absolute Deviation for each logic tree branch choice

Choice	Mean	Min	Max
Deformation Model
NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	5.3798643E-10	3.388634E-11	2.189939E-9
NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	1.6397727E-9	1.7161259E-11	7.133846E-9
NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	2.5833369E-9	3.2742242E-10	8.706884E-9
NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	3.0278507E-10	5.493283E-12	1.3674443E-9
NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model	2.986756E-10	8.299979E-14	1.4425735E-9
Scaling Relationship
LogA+4.1, From Moment	6.695841E-10	1.8361807E-11	4.632302E-9
LogA+4.2, From Moment	9.016821E-10	8.299979E-14	6.7231976E-9
LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	7.136009E-10	5.493283E-12	5.919978E-9
LogA+4.3, From Moment	1.2197641E-9	1.9871322E-11	8.706884E-9
Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	8.0328105E-10	2.8230208E-11	4.983076E-9
Width Limited, From Moment	7.094976E-10	4.024423E-11	5.322521E-9
Supra-Seismogenic b-value
b=0.0	2.0408106E-9	2.8074348E-10	8.706884E-9
b=0.25	1.1086639E-9	1.14515425E-10	5.890941E-9
b=0.5	5.213134E-10	2.1219566E-11	3.8130854E-9
b=0.75	2.9767994E-10	1.8589321E-11	3.3190468E-9
b=1.0	2.1270706E-10	8.299979E-14	2.669616E-9
Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties
Even-Fit Paleo Data	8.634026E-10	8.299979E-14	8.706884E-9
Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	8.142861E-10	1.8361807E-11	8.505965E-9
Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)	8.3101626E-10	5.493283E-12	7.455185E-9
Segmentation Model
High Segmentation	(N/A)	(N/A)	(N/A)
Low Segmentation	8.3623497E-10	8.299979E-14	8.706884E-9
Middle Segmentation	(N/A)	(N/A)	(N/A)
None	(N/A)	(N/A)	(N/A)

Standard Deviation Summary

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Standard Deviation Average Uncertainty-Weighted Constraint Fits

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Constraint	Average Standard Deviation	Best Fitting	Worst Fitting	Ratio to All Uncert-Weighted Constraints
All Uncertainty-Weighted Average	1.1200674	0.35844767	4.5826726	1.0
Uncertain Slip Rate	1.2643243	0.41923192	8.6793995	1.1438767
Paleoseismic Event Rate	1.6976018	0.19299613	9.236274	1.3031093
Uncertain Parkfield	0.5079019	0.08405323	1.8059237	0.46145484
Uncertain MFD Equality	1.0339549	0.56134516	4.3981156	1.0485499
Uncertain Subsection Total Nucleation Rates	1.0965538	0.3984668	3.4283478	1.0430094

Sorted branch values: A list of best and worst-fitting branches, sorted by how well they fit all uncertainthy-weighted constraints on average.

Rank	Value	Deformation Model	Scaling Relationship	Supra-Seismogenic b-value	Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties	Segmentation Model
1	0.35844767	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	UnderFit	LowSeg
2	0.35999817	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	UnderFit	None
3	0.36979038	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.2, SqrtLen	b=1.0	UnderFit	None
4	0.37129423	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.2	b=1.0	UnderFit	None
5	0.37246788	Shen-Bird	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	UnderFit	None
...	...	...	...	...	...	...
1796	4.438379	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	OverFit	None
1797	4.453733	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	OverFit	None
1798	4.495636	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=0.75	OverFit	None
1799	4.5087476	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=0.75	OverFit	LowSeg
1800	4.5826726	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=0.25	OverFit	None

Distribution of branch Standard Deviation values, averaged accross constraints:

Average branch choice values: A list of average fits across all uncertainthy-weighted constraints for each logic tree branch choice.

Choice	Mean	Min	Max
Deformation Model
NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	2.1427193	0.7893531	3.5251348
NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	1.2178463	0.54110914	1.6966255
NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	1.1173619	0.53769517	1.7237035
NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	0.99505985	0.43927324	1.5895169
NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model	1.10239	0.5245107	1.6857338
Scaling Relationship
LogA+4.1, From Moment	1.1162786	0.5480373	1.702861
LogA+4.2, From Moment	1.1226132	0.52985305	1.7110374
LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	1.0952806	0.5249471	1.6871411
LogA+4.3, From Moment	1.1571114	0.5184172	1.743452
Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	1.0971863	0.43545213	1.6661061
Width Limited, From Moment	1.1319339	0.4907047	1.6750133
Supra-Seismogenic b-value
b=0.0	1.490023	0.8742268	1.8345362
b=0.25	1.2309572	0.6287496	1.7413315
b=0.5	1.049563	0.44917476	1.677834
b=0.75	0.9469421	0.32963982	1.6367327
b=1.0	0.88285136	0.2577186	1.5975747
Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties
Even-Fit Paleo Data	0.94614404	0.4993049	1.0897001
Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	1.6802226	0.61209255	3.697667
Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)	0.7338353	0.35493693	1.0180686
Segmentation Model
High Segmentation	1.1136225	0.50931334	1.7120771
Low Segmentation	1.113215	0.49762177	1.6839217
Middle Segmentation	1.1163509	0.49936652	1.6936386
None	1.1642555	0.549834	1.6934259

Uncertain Slip Rate, Standard Deviation Summary

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Sorted branch values: A list of best and worst-fitting branches, sorted by how well they fit the Uncertain Slip Rate constraint.

Rank	Value	Deformation Model	Scaling Relationship	Supra-Seismogenic b-value	Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties	Segmentation Model
1	0.41923192	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	UnderFit	LowSeg
2	0.43109837	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	UnderFit	None
3	0.43616086	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.2	b=1.0	UnderFit	LowSeg
4	0.44072333	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.2	b=1.0	UnderFit	None
5	0.44197157	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.2, SqrtLen	b=1.0	UnderFit	LowSeg
...	...	...	...	...	...	...
1796	6.8845496	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	OverFit	HighSeg
1797	7.689649	Geologic	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	OverFit	MidSeg
1798	7.7491665	Geologic	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	OverFit	HighSeg
1799	8.072172	Geologic	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	OverFit	LowSeg
1800	8.6793995	Geologic	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	OverFit	None

Uncertain Slip Rate misfit Standard Deviation for each logic tree branch choice

Choice	Mean	Min	Max
Deformation Model
NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	2.780959	1.0508177	6.8845496
NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	1.4488765	0.45835367	8.6793995
NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	1.2401323	0.49913782	2.1975338
NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	1.056543	0.41923192	1.864836
NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model	1.2334151	0.4631552	2.1254947
Scaling Relationship
LogA+4.1, From Moment	1.2077054	0.4511041	5.077068
LogA+4.2, From Moment	1.2966659	0.43616086	6.0175414
LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	1.1915162	0.44197157	5.0179343
LogA+4.3, From Moment	1.4501276	0.41923192	8.6793995
Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	1.268141	0.44953993	6.047096
Width Limited, From Moment	1.1717895	0.5026647	4.8595915
Supra-Seismogenic b-value
b=0.0	1.5745641	1.0831151	5.724734
b=0.25	1.3064426	0.8681171	5.9323044
b=0.5	1.1350768	0.6842499	6.2501426
b=0.75	1.1282486	0.54536057	6.591571
b=1.0	1.1772892	0.41923192	8.6793995
Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties
Even-Fit Paleo Data	1.0897001	0.6237743	2.5512576
Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	1.7937144	0.9089155	8.6793995
Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)	0.90955824	0.41923192	2.1641395
Segmentation Model
High Segmentation	1.265841	0.46386972	7.7491665
Low Segmentation	1.2519774	0.41923192	8.072172
Middle Segmentation	1.2562326	0.44974378	7.689649
None	1.3087426	0.43109837	8.6793995

Paleoseismic Event Rate, Standard Deviation Summary

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Sorted branch values: A list of best and worst-fitting branches, sorted by how well they fit the Paleoseismic Event Rate constraint.

Rank	Value	Deformation Model	Scaling Relationship	Supra-Seismogenic b-value	Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties	Segmentation Model
1	0.19299613	Shen-Bird	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	UnderFit	None
2	0.21496351	Shen-Bird	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	UnderFit	LowSeg
3	0.22389825	Shen-Bird	WdthLmtd	b=1.0	UnderFit	None
4	0.22571243	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.2, SqrtLen	b=1.0	UnderFit	None
5	0.23011298	Geologic	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	UnderFit	None
...	...	...	...	...	...	...
1796	9.218618	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	OverFit	HighSeg
1797	9.221964	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=0.5	OverFit	HighSeg
1798	9.22865	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=0.25	OverFit	HighSeg
1799	9.2333	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=0.75	OverFit	HighSeg
1800	9.236274	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	OverFit	HighSeg

Paleoseismic Event Rate misfit Standard Deviation for each logic tree branch choice

Choice	Mean	Min	Max
Deformation Model
NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	3.5251348	0.4556367	9.236274
NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	1.6966255	0.23011298	4.160653
NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	1.7237035	0.3447527	3.9392464
NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	1.5895169	0.19299613	3.748536
NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model	1.6857338	0.29084787	3.8462188
Scaling Relationship
LogA+4.1, From Moment	1.702861	0.23770414	7.5258646
LogA+4.2, From Moment	1.7110374	0.2461128	8.341194
LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	1.6871411	0.22571243	7.4149113
LogA+4.3, From Moment	1.743452	0.23430021	9.236274
Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	1.6661061	0.19299613	7.7483993
Width Limited, From Moment	1.6750133	0.22389825	7.3498387
Supra-Seismogenic b-value
b=0.0	1.8345362	0.25745514	9.218618
b=0.25	1.7413315	0.26508662	9.22865
b=0.5	1.677834	0.27114064	9.221964
b=0.75	1.6367327	0.2372295	9.2333
b=1.0	1.5975747	0.19299613	9.236274
Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties
Even-Fit Paleo Data	1.0402017	0.7370617	3.17298
Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	3.697667	3.471846	9.236274
Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)	0.35493693	0.19299613	0.71518517
Segmentation Model
High Segmentation	1.7120771	0.25745514	9.236274
Low Segmentation	1.6839217	0.21496351	8.779464
Middle Segmentation	1.6936386	0.23909673	8.854396
None	1.6934259	0.19299613	9.043878

Uncertain Parkfield, Standard Deviation Summary

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Sorted branch values: A list of best and worst-fitting branches, sorted by how well they fit the Uncertain Parkfield constraint.

Rank	Value	Deformation Model	Scaling Relationship	Supra-Seismogenic b-value	Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties	Segmentation Model
1	0.08405323	Shen-Bird	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	UnderFit	None
2	0.097623296	Geologic	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	UnderFit	None
3	0.10035715	Zeng	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	UnderFit	None
4	0.10193816	Shen-Bird	WdthLmtd	b=1.0	UnderFit	None
5	0.10346252	Shen-Bird	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	UnderFit	LowSeg
...	...	...	...	...	...	...
1796	1.742556	Pollitz	LogA+4.2, SqrtLen	b=0.0	EvenFit	None
1797	1.7443461	Pollitz	LogA+4.2, SqrtLen	b=0.0	UnderFit	None
1798	1.758095	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	EvenFit	None
1799	1.7806177	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	UnderFit	None
1800	1.8059237	Pollitz	LogA+4.2, SqrtLen	b=0.0	OverFit	None

Uncertain Parkfield misfit Standard Deviation for each logic tree branch choice

Choice	Mean	Min	Max
Deformation Model
NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	0.7893531	0.30637014	1.6018695
NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	0.54110914	0.097623296	1.2796441
NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	0.53769517	0.124179766	1.8059237
NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	0.43927324	0.08405323	1.2746385
NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model	0.5245107	0.10035715	1.3804806
Scaling Relationship
LogA+4.1, From Moment	0.5480373	0.12241518	1.6018695
LogA+4.2, From Moment	0.52985305	0.11438276	1.6217164
LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	0.5249471	0.11935392	1.8059237
LogA+4.3, From Moment	0.5184172	0.109915994	1.7806177
Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	0.43545213	0.08405323	1.4637948
Width Limited, From Moment	0.4907047	0.10193816	1.4384594
Supra-Seismogenic b-value
b=0.0	0.8742268	0.503098	1.8059237
b=0.25	0.6287496	0.3314103	1.3539995
b=0.5	0.44917476	0.20812526	1.1269433
b=0.75	0.32963982	0.11734356	0.91932625
b=1.0	0.2577186	0.08405323	0.7847922
Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties
Even-Fit Paleo Data	0.4993049	0.16045064	1.758095
Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	0.61209255	0.22756933	1.8059237
Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)	0.4123083	0.08405323	1.7806177
Segmentation Model
High Segmentation	0.50931334	0.14980698	1.3100306
Low Segmentation	0.49762177	0.10346252	1.421531
Middle Segmentation	0.49936652	0.11784607	1.3850814
None	0.549834	0.08405323	1.8059237

Uncertain MFD Equality, Standard Deviation Summary

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Sorted branch values: A list of best and worst-fitting branches, sorted by how well they fit the Uncertain MFD Equality constraint.

Rank	Value	Deformation Model	Scaling Relationship	Supra-Seismogenic b-value	Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties	Segmentation Model
1	0.56134516	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	UnderFit	HighSeg
2	0.5793545	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	UnderFit	HighSeg
3	0.58121705	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	UnderFit	MidSeg
4	0.58985	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	UnderFit	MidSeg
5	0.5938507	Pollitz	LogA+4.2	b=1.0	UnderFit	HighSeg
...	...	...	...	...	...	...
1796	3.9881973	Evans	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=0.25	OverFit	None
1797	3.995033	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	OverFit	None
1798	4.0595093	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=0.5	OverFit	None
1799	4.294419	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=0.75	OverFit	None
1800	4.3981156	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=0.25	OverFit	None

Uncertain MFD Equality misfit Standard Deviation for each logic tree branch choice

Choice	Mean	Min	Max
Deformation Model
NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	1.8453114	0.87915415	4.3981156
NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	1.1092017	0.6243588	1.9646988
NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	1.0059719	0.56134516	1.6652163
NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	0.93657494	0.5793545	1.5091406
NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model	1.0264828	0.6210144	1.7151617
Scaling Relationship
LogA+4.1, From Moment	1.0097781	0.6326803	3.28104
LogA+4.2, From Moment	0.992013	0.5938507	3.8638422
LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	0.9855335	0.5957202	3.0938454
LogA+4.3, From Moment	0.9877159	0.56134516	4.3981156
Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	1.0773286	0.6875823	3.9881973
Width Limited, From Moment	1.1513604	0.70662844	3.1694436
Supra-Seismogenic b-value
b=0.0	1.4791229	1.225936	3.3627656
b=0.25	1.1794579	0.9645245	4.3981156
b=0.5	0.97259945	0.79486734	4.0595093
b=0.75	0.8263408	0.66708523	4.294419
b=1.0	0.7122534	0.56134516	3.995033
Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties
Even-Fit Paleo Data	1.0372001	0.618988	2.4306943
Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	1.046596	0.601255	4.3981156
Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)	1.0180686	0.56134516	2.2986403
Segmentation Model
High Segmentation	1.0062761	0.56134516	2.7277696
Low Segmentation	1.0427942	0.59631026	3.6659305
Middle Segmentation	1.0271474	0.58121705	3.1646676
None	1.1197354	0.6118967	4.3981156

Uncertain Subsection Total Nucleation Rates, Standard Deviation Summary

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Sorted branch values: A list of best and worst-fitting branches, sorted by how well they fit the Uncertain Subsection Total Nucleation Rates constraint.

Rank	Value	Deformation Model	Scaling Relationship	Supra-Seismogenic b-value	Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties	Segmentation Model
1	0.3984668	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	UnderFit	LowSeg
2	0.40103087	Shen-Bird	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	UnderFit	None
3	0.40464255	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	UnderFit	None
4	0.40815756	Shen-Bird	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	UnderFit	LowSeg
5	0.4101897	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	UnderFit	LowSeg
...	...	...	...	...	...	...
1796	3.2820666	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=0.25	OverFit	None
1797	3.2876954	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=0.5	OverFit	LowSeg
1798	3.3508224	Evans	WdthLmtd	b=0.0	OverFit	None
1799	3.391168	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	OverFit	LowSeg
1800	3.4283478	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	OverFit	None

Uncertain Subsection Total Nucleation Rates misfit Standard Deviation for each logic tree branch choice

Choice	Mean	Min	Max
Deformation Model
NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	1.7728387	0.74847054	3.4283478
NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	1.2934185	0.47456086	2.8224795
NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	1.0793067	0.4101897	2.409947
NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	0.9533913	0.3984668	1.6407347
NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model	1.0418077	0.4116971	2.1681018
Scaling Relationship
LogA+4.1, From Moment	1.1130112	0.41928014	2.9700346
LogA+4.2, From Moment	1.0834963	0.41411006	3.091823
LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	1.0872654	0.41598737	2.9635396
LogA+4.3, From Moment	1.0858443	0.3984668	3.4283478
Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	1.0389037	0.40103087	3.1279175
Width Limited, From Moment	1.1708016	0.46811855	3.3508224
Supra-Seismogenic b-value
b=0.0	1.6876652	1.1502423	3.4283478
b=0.25	1.298804	0.87261564	3.2820666
b=0.5	1.0131303	0.66616756	3.2876954
b=0.75	0.8137486	0.5042534	3.1530833
b=1.0	0.66942084	0.3984668	2.9755094
Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties
Even-Fit Paleo Data	1.0643137	0.5059746	2.725647
Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	1.2510433	0.62811244	3.4283478
Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)	0.9743044	0.3984668	2.6754417
Segmentation Model
High Segmentation	1.0746051	0.4535675	3.024334
Low Segmentation	1.0897598	0.3984668	3.391168
Middle Segmentation	1.1053697	0.4226535	3.2002227
None	1.1495398	0.40103087	3.4283478

Laplacian Smoothing (select parents), Standard Deviation Summary

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Sorted branch values: A list of best and worst-fitting branches, sorted by how well they fit the Laplacian Smoothing (select parents) constraint.

Rank	Value	Deformation Model	Scaling Relationship	Supra-Seismogenic b-value	Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties	Segmentation Model
1	1.0105975E-5	Shen-Bird	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	UnderFit	MidSeg
2	1.0358389E-5	Zeng	LogA+4.2	b=1.0	UnderFit	HighSeg
3	1.1044522E-5	Zeng	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	UnderFit	HighSeg
4	1.1460766E-5	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.2	b=1.0	UnderFit	HighSeg
5	1.1834617E-5	Shen-Bird	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=0.75	UnderFit	LowSeg
...	...	...	...	...	...	...
1796	3.8308633E-4	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=0.75	OverFit	MidSeg
1797	3.873235E-4	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=0.75	OverFit	HighSeg
1798	3.9944262E-4	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	OverFit	HighSeg
1799	3.997152E-4	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	OverFit	LowSeg
1800	3.9993253E-4	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	OverFit	MidSeg

Laplacian Smoothing (select parents) misfit Standard Deviation for each logic tree branch choice

Choice	Mean	Min	Max
Deformation Model
NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	1.5955478E-4	4.819728E-5	3.9993253E-4
NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	5.9537975E-5	1.26544965E-5	1.1657064E-4
NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	1.0685277E-4	1.3880238E-5	2.7102415E-4
NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	6.977205E-5	1.0105975E-5	1.9990401E-4
NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model	8.8962464E-5	1.0358389E-5	2.3137391E-4
Scaling Relationship
LogA+4.1, From Moment	8.65055E-5	1.2805086E-5	3.3679992E-4
LogA+4.2, From Moment	8.233089E-5	1.0358389E-5	3.203484E-4
LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	8.761822E-5	1.2960009E-5	3.2572466E-4
LogA+4.3, From Moment	8.603813E-5	1.26544965E-5	3.9993253E-4
Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	6.834381E-5	1.0105975E-5	2.9264923E-4
Width Limited, From Moment	5.7248864E-5	1.1942416E-5	1.991571E-4
Supra-Seismogenic b-value
b=0.0	8.42253E-5	2.6147642E-5	3.475354E-4
b=0.25	8.13344E-5	2.2479286E-5	3.6175115E-4
b=0.5	7.7394725E-5	1.6863449E-5	3.7700383E-4
b=0.75	7.36922E-5	1.1834617E-5	3.873235E-4
b=1.0	7.342456E-5	1.0105975E-5	3.9993253E-4
Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties
Even-Fit Paleo Data	7.8641664E-5	3.0694002E-5	1.4831877E-4
Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	1.2737933E-4	4.2877255E-5	3.9993253E-4
Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)	2.8021717E-5	1.0105975E-5	1.3021137E-4
Segmentation Model
High Segmentation	8.133234E-5	1.0358389E-5	3.9944262E-4
Low Segmentation	7.514473E-5	1.1834617E-5	3.997152E-4
Middle Segmentation	7.827189E-5	1.0105975E-5	3.9993253E-4
None	7.3025956E-5	1.3029867E-5	3.744332E-4

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Minimum from 2 models, Standard Deviation Summary

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Sorted branch values: A list of best and worst-fitting branches, sorted by how well they fit the Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Minimum from 2 models constraint.

Rank	Value	Deformation Model	Scaling Relationship	Supra-Seismogenic b-value	Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties	Segmentation Model
1	0.0	Geologic	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	OverFit	LowSeg
2	0.0	Shen-Bird	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	EvenFit	MidSeg
3	2.4563398E-25	Geologic	LogA+4.3	b=0.75	OverFit	LowSeg
4	1.0438927E-15	Pollitz	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	OverFit	MidSeg
5	1.5167248E-14	Pollitz	LogA+4.1	b=1.0	OverFit	LowSeg
...	...	...	...	...	...	...
1346	8.156624E-8	Evans	LogA+4.2	b=1.0	OverFit	HighSeg
1347	8.341977E-8	Evans	LogA+4.2, SqrtLen	b=1.0	OverFit	LowSeg
1348	9.6677674E-8	Evans	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=0.0	OverFit	HighSeg
1349	1.1542158E-7	Evans	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=0.25	OverFit	HighSeg
1350	1.2407443E-7	Evans	LogA+4.2, SqrtLen	b=0.5	OverFit	HighSeg

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Minimum from 2 models misfit Standard Deviation for each logic tree branch choice

Choice	Mean	Min	Max
Deformation Model
NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	9.929565E-9	1.8917258E-11	1.2407443E-7
NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	1.1714276E-9	0.0	1.2327371E-8
NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	6.212452E-10	1.0438927E-15	3.8982173E-9
NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	3.8781978E-10	0.0	2.2209117E-9
NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model	8.2794466E-10	2.1564684E-11	6.4145635E-9
Scaling Relationship
LogA+4.1, From Moment	1.0122027E-9	1.5167248E-14	8.155831E-8
LogA+4.2, From Moment	9.2146224E-10	3.9989554E-14	8.156624E-8
LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	9.725616E-10	2.5004462E-12	1.2407443E-7
LogA+4.3, From Moment	9.62085E-10	2.4563398E-25	6.9040375E-8
Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	8.33267E-10	0.0	1.1542158E-7
Width Limited, From Moment	9.498616E-10	1.6937906E-12	2.9522E-8
Supra-Seismogenic b-value
b=0.0	1.7808782E-9	5.853243E-11	9.6677674E-8
b=0.25	9.84479E-10	1.5262487E-11	1.1542158E-7
b=0.5	8.172043E-10	8.531161E-12	1.2407443E-7
b=0.75	5.3630683E-10	2.4563398E-25	6.9040375E-8
b=1.0	5.906652E-10	0.0	8.341977E-8
Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties
Even-Fit Paleo Data	6.5254535E-10	0.0	7.167672E-9
Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	1.463401E-9	0.0	1.2407443E-7
Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)	7.0977374E-10	6.8620903E-12	1.2327371E-8
Segmentation Model
High Segmentation	1.0286455E-9	8.840025E-13	1.2407443E-7
Low Segmentation	7.995434E-10	0.0	8.341977E-8
Middle Segmentation	9.500768E-10	0.0	6.9040375E-8
None	(N/A)	(N/A)	(N/A)

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.95, R₀=3], Standard Deviation Summary

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Sorted branch values: A list of best and worst-fitting branches, sorted by how well they fit the Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.95, R₀=3] constraint.

Rank	Value	Deformation Model	Scaling Relationship	Supra-Seismogenic b-value	Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties	Segmentation Model
1	7.693168E-10	Evans	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	OverFit	MidSeg
2	9.07247E-10	Evans	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=0.75	EvenFit	MidSeg
3	1.046955E-9	Evans	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	UnderFit	MidSeg
4	1.0807072E-9	Geologic	WdthLmtd	b=1.0	UnderFit	MidSeg
5	1.0904467E-9	Evans	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	UnderFit	MidSeg
...	...	...	...	...	...	...
446	4.6716346E-7	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=0.25	EvenFit	MidSeg
447	4.6909733E-7	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	OverFit	MidSeg
448	4.7296064E-7	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=0.25	UnderFit	MidSeg
449	5.506526E-7	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	UnderFit	MidSeg
450	6.1414227E-7	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	EvenFit	MidSeg

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.95, R₀=3] misfit Standard Deviation for each logic tree branch choice

Choice	Mean	Min	Max
Deformation Model
NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	1.159981E-8	7.693168E-10	5.9743854E-8
NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	7.3514286E-8	1.0807072E-9	3.1952072E-7
NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	1.9377369E-7	4.753401E-8	6.1414227E-7
NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	1.7587112E-8	3.314833E-9	5.9326503E-8
NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model	1.2768131E-8	1.2417567E-9	6.6182494E-8
Scaling Relationship
LogA+4.1, From Moment	3.845379E-8	1.4879752E-9	2.8540407E-7
LogA+4.2, From Moment	5.0178162E-8	1.5245086E-9	4.001311E-7
LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	3.501235E-8	1.2417567E-9	2.6874145E-7
LogA+4.3, From Moment	6.8973584E-8	1.0904467E-9	6.1414227E-7
Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	4.0526352E-8	7.693168E-10	2.9818548E-7
Width Limited, From Moment	3.422346E-8	1.0807072E-9	2.1623067E-7
Supra-Seismogenic b-value
b=0.0	9.925837E-8	4.329048E-9	6.1414227E-7
b=0.25	6.020277E-8	2.9937886E-9	4.7296064E-7
b=0.5	3.2479427E-8	1.5037501E-9	3.001929E-7
b=0.75	1.9014436E-8	9.07247E-10	1.7384883E-7
b=1.0	1.1851409E-8	7.693168E-10	1.3006257E-7
Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties
Even-Fit Paleo Data	4.4908614E-8	9.07247E-10	6.1414227E-7
Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	4.5116888E-8	7.693168E-10	4.6909733E-7
Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)	4.365835E-8	1.046955E-9	5.506526E-7
Segmentation Model
High Segmentation	(N/A)	(N/A)	(N/A)
Low Segmentation	(N/A)	(N/A)	(N/A)
Middle Segmentation	4.4561283E-8	7.693168E-10	6.1414227E-7
None	(N/A)	(N/A)	(N/A)

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.65, R₀=2], Standard Deviation Summary

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Sorted branch values: A list of best and worst-fitting branches, sorted by how well they fit the Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.65, R₀=2] constraint.

Rank	Value	Deformation Model	Scaling Relationship	Supra-Seismogenic b-value	Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties	Segmentation Model
1	1.9625541E-9	Evans	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	EvenFit	HighSeg
2	2.4322895E-9	Evans	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=1.0	OverFit	HighSeg
3	3.739622E-9	Evans	WdthLmtd	b=1.0	EvenFit	HighSeg
4	4.698586E-9	Evans	WdthLmtd	b=1.0	OverFit	HighSeg
5	4.8300874E-9	Evans	WdthLmtd, CSD	b=0.75	UnderFit	HighSeg
...	...	...	...	...	...	...
446	4.627883E-6	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=0.25	UnderFit	HighSeg
447	4.744935E-6	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	UnderFit	HighSeg
448	5.0155904E-6	Pollitz	LogA+4.2	b=0.0	OverFit	HighSeg
449	5.3175618E-6	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	OverFit	HighSeg
450	5.7692405E-6	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	EvenFit	HighSeg

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.65, R₀=2] misfit Standard Deviation for each logic tree branch choice

Choice	Mean	Min	Max
Deformation Model
NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	5.8664504E-8	1.9625541E-9	2.1477331E-7
NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	5.6800826E-7	1.0583315E-8	2.7322994E-6
NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	2.339491E-6	6.151514E-7	5.7692405E-6
NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	2.3662398E-7	9.2772964E-8	5.9266864E-7
NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model	8.732675E-8	1.5047211E-8	3.007497E-7
Scaling Relationship
LogA+4.1, From Moment	4.182752E-7	8.329742E-9	3.6821275E-6
LogA+4.2, From Moment	5.332457E-7	2.1223556E-8	5.0155904E-6
LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	3.9640287E-7	6.0256005E-9	4.258236E-6
LogA+4.3, From Moment	6.564401E-7	1.7338289E-8	5.7692405E-6
Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	3.3496082E-7	1.9625541E-9	3.6313409E-6
Width Limited, From Moment	2.9874903E-7	3.739622E-9	2.5431668E-6
Supra-Seismogenic b-value
b=0.0	9.457055E-7	6.3824324E-8	5.7692405E-6
b=0.25	5.78665E-7	2.896074E-8	4.627883E-6
b=0.5	3.2515996E-7	8.680157E-9	3.2462444E-6
b=0.75	2.0946283E-7	4.8300874E-9	2.4006242E-6
b=1.0	1.3940151E-7	1.9625541E-9	1.4278962E-6
Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties
Even-Fit Paleo Data	4.4179868E-7	1.9625541E-9	5.7692405E-6
Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	4.3758905E-7	2.4322895E-9	5.3175618E-6
Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)	4.396491E-7	4.8300874E-9	4.744935E-6
Segmentation Model
High Segmentation	4.3967896E-7	1.9625541E-9	5.7692405E-6
Low Segmentation	(N/A)	(N/A)	(N/A)
Middle Segmentation	(N/A)	(N/A)	(N/A)
None	(N/A)	(N/A)	(N/A)

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=2.12, R₀=4], Standard Deviation Summary

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Sorted branch values: A list of best and worst-fitting branches, sorted by how well they fit the Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=2.12, R₀=4] constraint.

Rank	Value	Deformation Model	Scaling Relationship	Supra-Seismogenic b-value	Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties	Segmentation Model
1	2.824433E-12	Zeng	LogA+4.2	b=1.0	EvenFit	LowSeg
2	1.324758E-10	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.2, SqrtLen	b=1.0	UnderFit	LowSeg
3	4.0229078E-10	Zeng	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	EvenFit	LowSeg
4	4.3264534E-10	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.2	b=1.0	EvenFit	LowSeg
5	4.6210621E-10	Shen-Bird	LogA+4.3	b=1.0	UnderFit	LowSeg
...	...	...	...	...	...	...
446	1.18968984E-7	Geologic	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	OverFit	LowSeg
447	1.3131898E-7	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	UnderFit	LowSeg
448	1.4571475E-7	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	OverFit	LowSeg
449	1.4696856E-7	Pollitz	LogA+4.2	b=0.0	EvenFit	LowSeg
450	1.7793359E-7	Pollitz	LogA+4.3	b=0.0	EvenFit	LowSeg

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=2.12, R₀=4] misfit Standard Deviation for each logic tree branch choice

Choice	Mean	Min	Max
Deformation Model
NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	1.1324971E-8	4.681144E-10	5.952089E-8
NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	2.6665639E-8	4.8305676E-10	1.18968984E-7
NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	5.6680054E-8	5.728605E-9	1.7793359E-7
NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	4.6699253E-9	1.324758E-10	1.7875063E-8
NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model	5.1626396E-9	2.824433E-12	2.2276016E-8
Scaling Relationship
LogA+4.1, From Moment	1.2072228E-8	4.9477195E-10	7.413245E-8
LogA+4.2, From Moment	1.632362E-8	2.824433E-12	1.4696856E-7
LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	1.28123645E-8	1.324758E-10	9.846203E-8
LogA+4.3, From Moment	2.2211267E-8	4.0229078E-10	1.7793359E-7
Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	1.3987363E-8	4.681144E-10	1.0099273E-7
Width Limited, From Moment	1.16355015E-8	8.077366E-10	1.141842E-7
Supra-Seismogenic b-value
b=0.0	3.323056E-8	3.815898E-9	1.7793359E-7
b=0.25	1.9112269E-8	1.653628E-9	1.1868836E-7
b=0.5	9.4914085E-9	5.4975685E-10	8.043687E-8
b=0.75	6.7771935E-9	4.9477195E-10	9.012408E-8
b=1.0	5.5905223E-9	2.824433E-12	7.003732E-8
Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties
Even-Fit Paleo Data	1.5589345E-8	2.824433E-12	1.7793359E-7
Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	1.4363812E-8	4.681144E-10	1.4571475E-7
Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)	1.4568016E-8	1.324758E-10	1.3131898E-7
Segmentation Model
High Segmentation	(N/A)	(N/A)	(N/A)
Low Segmentation	1.484039E-8	2.824433E-12	1.7793359E-7
Middle Segmentation	(N/A)	(N/A)	(N/A)
None	(N/A)	(N/A)	(N/A)

Constraint Summaries

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Constraint Weights

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Constraint Name	Average Weight	Range	Weight Distribution
Uncertain Slip Rate	1.8127515	[1.4671675, 2.2128532]
Paleoseismic Event Rate	10.297088	[0.05, 53.80151]
Uncertain Parkfield	6.75214	[0.49759746, 22.138548]
Uncertain MFD Equality	2.9125626	[2.4652247, 3.4434652]
Uncertain Subsection Total Nucleation Rates	1.0004885	[0.51067936, 1.4592043]
Laplacian Smoothing (select parents)	10000.0	[10000.0, 10000.0]	(N/A)
Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Minimum from 2 models	100000.0	[100000.0, 100000.0]	(N/A)
Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.95, R₀=3]	100000.0	[100000.0, 100000.0]	(N/A)
Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.65, R₀=2]	100000.0	[100000.0, 100000.0]	(N/A)

Uncertain Slip Rate Summary

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Standard Deviation	Mean	Mean Absolute Deviation	RMSE
Average: 1.2643243	Average: -0.15283534	Average: 0.54336816	Average: 1.2778857
Range: [0.41923192, 8.6793995]	Range: [-0.6252677, 0.37674075]	Range: [0.16906978, 1.5602381]	Range: [0.42093718, 8.679381]

Paleoseismic Event Rate Summary

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Standard Deviation	Mean	Mean Absolute Deviation	RMSE
Average: 1.6976018	Average: -0.24191052	Average: 0.8477704	Average: 1.7153107
Range: [0.19299613, 9.236274]	Range: [-4.3193607, 0.46283257]	Range: [0.13956724, 4.687816]	Range: [0.20640858, 9.947938]

Uncertain Parkfield Summary

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Standard Deviation	Mean	Mean Absolute Deviation	RMSE
Average: 0.5079019	Average: -0.5079019	Average: 0.5079019	Average: 0.5079019
Range: [0.08405323, 1.8059237]	Range: [-1.8059237, -0.08405323]	Range: [0.08405323, 1.8059237]	Range: [0.08405323, 1.8059237]

Uncertain MFD Equality Summary

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Standard Deviation	Mean	Mean Absolute Deviation	RMSE
Average: 1.0339549	Average: -0.035356138	Average: 0.59677386	Average: 1.035379
Range: [0.56134516, 4.3981156]	Range: [-0.5237584, 0.13902847]	Range: [0.3082461, 1.2747046]	Range: [0.56166494, 4.396955]

Uncertain Subsection Total Nucleation Rates Summary

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Standard Deviation	Mean	Mean Absolute Deviation	RMSE
Average: 1.0965538	Average: 0.27448738	Average: 0.5335149	Average: 1.1321961
Range: [0.3984668, 3.4283478]	Range: [0.021313528, 1.1033187]	Range: [0.16317786, 1.5474101]	Range: [0.4015609, 3.601211]

Laplacian Smoothing (select parents) Summary

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Standard Deviation	Mean	Mean Absolute Deviation	RMSE
Average: 7.8014236E-5	Average: -8.421607E-6	Average: 3.790754E-5	Average: 7.840418E-5
Range: [1.0105975E-5, 3.9993253E-4]	Range: [-3.4186887E-5, 1.6099939E-6]	Range: [4.6847626E-6, 1.4354888E-4]	Range: [1.0375307E-5, 4.0008503E-4]

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Minimum from 2 models Summary

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Standard Deviation	Mean	Mean Absolute Deviation	RMSE
Average: 9.419067E-10	Average: 2.382719E-11	Average: 2.382719E-11	Average: 9.421338E-10
Range: [0.0, 1.2407443E-7]	Range: [0.0, 2.2984215E-9]	Range: [0.0, 2.2984215E-9]	Range: [0.0, 1.2408229E-7]

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.95, R₀=3] Summary

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Standard Deviation	Mean	Mean Absolute Deviation	RMSE
Average: 4.4561283E-8	Average: 2.2557238E-9	Average: 2.2557238E-9	Average: 4.460216E-8
Range: [7.693168E-10, 6.1414227E-7]	Range: [5.933976E-11, 2.6547516E-8]	Range: [5.933976E-11, 2.6547516E-8]	Range: [7.71843E-10, 6.144526E-7]

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.65, R₀=2] Summary

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Standard Deviation	Mean	Mean Absolute Deviation	RMSE
Average: 4.3967896E-7	Average: 1.8592583E-8	Average: 1.8592583E-8	Average: 4.3992821E-7
Range: [1.9625541E-9, 5.7692405E-6]	Range: [1.2431355E-10, 2.0145517E-7]	Range: [1.2431355E-10, 2.0145517E-7]	Range: [1.9657669E-9, 5.77035E-6]

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=2.12, R₀=4] Summary

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Standard Deviation	Mean	Mean Absolute Deviation	RMSE
Average: 1.484039E-8	Average: 8.3623497E-10	Average: 8.3623497E-10	Average: 1.4858737E-8
Range: [2.824433E-12, 1.7793359E-7]	Range: [8.299979E-14, 8.706884E-9]	Range: [8.299979E-14, 8.706884E-9]	Range: [2.824433E-12, 1.7806973E-7]

Deformation Model

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Deformation Model Average Constraint Fits

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Average misfits across all constraints as a function of Deformation Model choice

Choice	Quantity	Average Constraint Misfit
Evans	Standard Deviation	2.1427193
Geologic	Standard Deviation	1.2178463
Pollitz	Standard Deviation	1.1173619
Shen-Bird	Standard Deviation	0.99505985
Zeng	Standard Deviation	1.10239
Evans	Mean	-0.42219368
Geologic	Mean	-0.1323748
Pollitz	Mean	-0.13473423
Shen-Bird	Mean	-0.11718
Zeng	Mean	-0.12989265
Evans	Mean Absolute Deviation	0.9949944
Geologic	Mean Absolute Deviation	0.6264123
Pollitz	Mean Absolute Deviation	0.6068693
Shen-Bird	Mean Absolute Deviation	0.5476251
Zeng	Mean Absolute Deviation	0.62284124
Evans	RMSE	2.2073083
Geologic	RMSE	1.2312891
Pollitz	RMSE	1.1286484
Shen-Bird	RMSE	1.0075357
Zeng	RMSE	1.114844

Deformation Model, Uncertain Slip Rate Misfits

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Standard Deviation

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Standard Deviation: 2.780959	Average Standard Deviation: 1.4488765	Average Standard Deviation: 1.2401323	Average Standard Deviation: 1.056543	Average Standard Deviation: 1.2334151
Standard Deviation Range: [1.0508177, 6.8845496]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.45835367, 8.6793995]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.49913782, 2.1975338]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.41923192, 1.864836]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.4631552, 2.1254947]

Mean

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Mean: -0.13559416	Average Mean: -0.18394965	Average Mean: -0.132396	Average Mean: -0.109658726	Average Mean: -0.17691898
Mean Range: [-0.6252677, 0.37674075]	Mean Range: [-0.60922325, 0.13445276]	Mean Range: [-0.49050912, 0.111572795]	Mean Range: [-0.35409972, 0.13148382]	Mean Range: [-0.59669185, 0.03986488]

Mean Absolute Deviation

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.83519304	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.57537454	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.5365816	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.48564422	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.5585446
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.38549393, 1.5602381]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.19147877, 1.2074529]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.18679042, 1.1964266]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.16906978, 0.92304164]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.18785253, 1.250642]

RMSE

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average RMSE: 2.794158	Average RMSE: 1.4667785	Average RMSE: 1.2497073	Average RMSE: 1.0656617	Average RMSE: 1.2489117
RMSE Range: [1.058573, 6.893366]	RMSE Range: [0.4607728, 8.679381]	RMSE Range: [0.50088656, 2.251417]	RMSE Range: [0.42093718, 1.8692985]	RMSE Range: [0.46564376, 2.2074778]

Deformation Model, Paleoseismic Event Rate Misfits

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Standard Deviation

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Standard Deviation: 3.5251348	Average Standard Deviation: 1.6966255	Average Standard Deviation: 1.7237035	Average Standard Deviation: 1.5895169	Average Standard Deviation: 1.6857338
Standard Deviation Range: [0.4556367, 9.236274]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.23011298, 4.160653]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.3447527, 3.9392464]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.19299613, 3.748536]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.29084787, 3.8462188]

Mean

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Mean: -1.3695449	Average Mean: -0.18206176	Average Mean: -0.22493865	Average Mean: -0.27522177	Average Mean: -0.19099218
Mean Range: [-4.3193607, -0.10707142]	Mean Range: [-0.8218487, 0.46283257]	Mean Range: [-1.1842009, 0.06041872]	Mean Range: [-0.86432654, 0.060967956]	Mean Range: [-1.1543189, 0.11122991]

Mean Absolute Deviation

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.6982288	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.82119423	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.8962307	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.7705993	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.8812659
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.34420452, 4.687816]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.1532647, 2.0010853]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.24113482, 2.0949583]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.13956724, 1.7491778]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.20730677, 2.0781415]

RMSE

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average RMSE: 3.7665293	Average RMSE: 1.7070428	Average RMSE: 1.7332823	Average RMSE: 1.6091012	Average RMSE: 1.6955439
RMSE Range: [0.52647644, 9.947938]	RMSE Range: [0.23031199, 4.1928573]	RMSE Range: [0.35616687, 3.9032872]	RMSE Range: [0.20640858, 3.7840483]	RMSE Range: [0.30447417, 3.8111763]

Deformation Model, Uncertain Parkfield Misfits

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Standard Deviation

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Standard Deviation: 0.7893531	Average Standard Deviation: 0.54110914	Average Standard Deviation: 0.53769517	Average Standard Deviation: 0.43927324	Average Standard Deviation: 0.5245107
Standard Deviation Range: [0.30637014, 1.6018695]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.097623296, 1.2796441]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.124179766, 1.8059237]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.08405323, 1.2746385]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.10035715, 1.3804806]

Mean

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Mean: -0.7893531	Average Mean: -0.54110914	Average Mean: -0.53769517	Average Mean: -0.43927324	Average Mean: -0.5245107
Mean Range: [-1.6018695, -0.30637014]	Mean Range: [-1.2796441, -0.097623296]	Mean Range: [-1.8059237, -0.124179766]	Mean Range: [-1.2746385, -0.08405323]	Mean Range: [-1.3804806, -0.10035715]

Mean Absolute Deviation

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.7893531	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.54110914	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.53769517	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.43927324	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.5245107
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.30637014, 1.6018695]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.097623296, 1.2796441]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.124179766, 1.8059237]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.08405323, 1.2746385]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.10035715, 1.3804806]

RMSE

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average RMSE: 0.7893531	Average RMSE: 0.54110914	Average RMSE: 0.53769517	Average RMSE: 0.43927324	Average RMSE: 0.5245107
RMSE Range: [0.30637014, 1.6018695]	RMSE Range: [0.097623296, 1.2796441]	RMSE Range: [0.124179766, 1.8059237]	RMSE Range: [0.08405323, 1.2746385]	RMSE Range: [0.10035715, 1.3804806]

Deformation Model, Uncertain MFD Equality Misfits

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Standard Deviation

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Standard Deviation: 1.8453114	Average Standard Deviation: 1.1092017	Average Standard Deviation: 1.0059719	Average Standard Deviation: 0.93657494	Average Standard Deviation: 1.0264828
Standard Deviation Range: [0.87915415, 4.3981156]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.6243588, 1.9646988]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.56134516, 1.6652163]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.5793545, 1.5091406]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.6210144, 1.7151617]

Mean

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Mean: -0.23108977	Average Mean: -0.05872911	Average Mean: -0.04992312	Average Mean: -0.008771309	Average Mean: -0.02707533
Mean Range: [-0.5237584, 0.13902847]	Mean Range: [-0.242854, 0.08270674]	Mean Range: [-0.17854501, 0.042320468]	Mean Range: [-0.11922168, 0.07525215]	Mean Range: [-0.16992094, 0.080548234]

Mean Absolute Deviation

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.84683084	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.62894374	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.54033357	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.564961	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.6009302
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.4820685, 1.2747046]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.3573081, 1.1192973]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.3082461, 0.89115703]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.34272337, 0.9223854]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.353336, 1.015523]

RMSE

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average RMSE: 1.8639917	Average RMSE: 1.1115688	Average RMSE: 1.0074166	Average RMSE: 0.93678606	Average RMSE: 1.0272702
RMSE Range: [0.88600904, 4.396955]	RMSE Range: [0.62444174, 1.9640073]	RMSE Range: [0.56166494, 1.6659861]	RMSE Range: [0.57911974, 1.5093123]	RMSE Range: [0.62080085, 1.7145202]

Deformation Model, Uncertain Subsection Total Nucleation Rates Misfits

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Standard Deviation

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Standard Deviation: 1.7728387	Average Standard Deviation: 1.2934185	Average Standard Deviation: 1.0793067	Average Standard Deviation: 0.9533913	Average Standard Deviation: 1.0418077
Standard Deviation Range: [0.74847054, 3.4283478]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.47456086, 2.8224795]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.4101897, 2.409947]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.3984668, 1.6407347]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.4116971, 2.1681018]

Mean

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Mean: 0.41461354	Average Mean: 0.30397567	Average Mean: 0.2712818	Average Mean: 0.24702506	Average Mean: 0.27003396
Mean Range: [0.09170393, 1.1033187]	Mean Range: [0.03739005, 0.763737]	Mean Range: [0.047788624, 0.8533694]	Mean Range: [0.021313528, 0.64173865]	Mean Range: [0.04002014, 0.83411396]

Mean Absolute Deviation

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.8053663	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.56543976	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.52350545	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.47764772	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.54895484
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.3539337, 1.5474101]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.18002811, 1.1967933]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.17381206, 1.1668494]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.16317786, 0.9236841]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.1824836, 1.2444394]

RMSE

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average RMSE: 1.8225095	Average RMSE: 1.3299463	Average RMSE: 1.1151407	Average RMSE: 0.98685604	Average RMSE: 1.0779833
RMSE Range: [0.76152945, 3.601211]	RMSE Range: [0.47877464, 2.9068813]	RMSE Range: [0.41595727, 2.5563705]	RMSE Range: [0.4015609, 1.728151]	RMSE Range: [0.41412333, 2.3228362]

Deformation Model, Laplacian Smoothing (select parents) Misfits

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Standard Deviation

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Standard Deviation: 1.5955478E-4	Average Standard Deviation: 5.9537975E-5	Average Standard Deviation: 1.0685277E-4	Average Standard Deviation: 6.977205E-5	Average Standard Deviation: 8.8962464E-5
Standard Deviation Range: [4.819728E-5, 3.9993253E-4]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.26544965E-5, 1.1657064E-4]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.3880238E-5, 2.7102415E-4]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.0105975E-5, 1.9990401E-4]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.0358389E-5, 2.3137391E-4]

Mean

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Mean: -1.3005602E-5	Average Mean: -7.485374E-6	Average Mean: -5.0503063E-6	Average Mean: -7.685733E-6	Average Mean: -1.0474496E-5
Mean Range: [-3.4186887E-5, -2.2298168E-6]	Mean Range: [-1.7134354E-5, -2.341049E-6]	Mean Range: [-1.5281457E-5, 7.542859E-7]	Mean Range: [-1.5960008E-5, -1.400965E-6]	Mean Range: [-2.3102515E-5, 1.6099939E-6]

Mean Absolute Deviation

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 7.015808E-5	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 3.1444495E-5	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 5.3588414E-5	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 2.9966539E-5	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 4.5163884E-5
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [2.3315977E-5, 1.4354888E-4]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [5.2424534E-6, 7.117594E-5]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [6.013973E-6, 1.2935857E-4]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [5.197119E-6, 6.010291E-5]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [4.6847626E-6, 1.2575412E-4]

RMSE

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average RMSE: 1.5983132E-4	Average RMSE: 5.9964135E-5	Average RMSE: 1.06867345E-4	Average RMSE: 7.010303E-5	Average RMSE: 8.948286E-5
RMSE Range: [4.824565E-5, 4.0008503E-4]	RMSE Range: [1.2847215E-5, 1.172685E-4]	RMSE Range: [1.3922834E-5, 2.7054714E-4]	RMSE Range: [1.0474247E-5, 2.0016429E-4]	RMSE Range: [1.0375307E-5, 2.3177489E-4]

Deformation Model, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Minimum from 2 models Misfits

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Standard Deviation

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Standard Deviation: 9.929565E-9	Average Standard Deviation: 1.1714276E-9	Average Standard Deviation: 6.212452E-10	Average Standard Deviation: 3.8781978E-10	Average Standard Deviation: 8.2794466E-10
Standard Deviation Range: [1.8917258E-11, 1.2407443E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.0, 1.2327371E-8]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.0438927E-15, 3.8982173E-9]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.0, 2.2209117E-9]	Standard Deviation Range: [2.1564684E-11, 6.4145635E-9]

Mean

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Mean: 1.9252407E-10	Average Mean: 3.301634E-11	Average Mean: 1.4629681E-11	Average Mean: 1.0383923E-11	Average Mean: 2.1560094E-11
Mean Range: [4.6771446E-13, 2.2984215E-9]	Mean Range: [0.0, 2.7868827E-10]	Mean Range: [1.5354684E-17, 9.8721635E-11]	Mean Range: [0.0, 6.3879506E-11]	Mean Range: [3.4426916E-13, 1.5183374E-10]

Mean Absolute Deviation

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.9252407E-10	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 3.301634E-11	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.4629681E-11	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.0383923E-11	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 2.1560094E-11
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [4.6771446E-13, 2.2984215E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.0, 2.7868827E-10]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [1.5354684E-17, 9.8721635E-11]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.0, 6.3879506E-11]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [3.4426916E-13, 1.5183374E-10]

RMSE

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average RMSE: 9.930426E-9	Average RMSE: 1.1718093E-9	Average RMSE: 6.2136585E-10	Average RMSE: 3.8792494E-10	Average RMSE: 8.2815504E-10
RMSE Range: [1.8922508E-11, 1.2408229E-7]	RMSE Range: [0.0, 1.2328238E-8]	RMSE Range: [1.0438927E-15, 3.898218E-9]	RMSE Range: [0.0, 2.2209952E-9]	RMSE Range: [2.15651E-11, 6.4156667E-9]

Deformation Model, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.95, R₀=3] Misfits

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Standard Deviation

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Standard Deviation: 1.159981E-8	Average Standard Deviation: 7.3514286E-8	Average Standard Deviation: 1.9377369E-7	Average Standard Deviation: 1.7587112E-8	Average Standard Deviation: 1.2768131E-8
Standard Deviation Range: [7.693168E-10, 5.9743854E-8]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.0807072E-9, 3.1952072E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [4.753401E-8, 6.1414227E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [3.314833E-9, 5.9326503E-8]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.2417567E-9, 6.6182494E-8]

Mean

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Mean: 6.7502737E-10	Average Mean: 4.094274E-9	Average Mean: 7.4961015E-9	Average Mean: 9.639848E-10	Average Mean: 8.4233964E-10
Mean Range: [6.6546255E-11, 3.712884E-9]	Mean Range: [6.104902E-11, 1.710582E-8]	Mean Range: [1.7359281E-9, 2.6547516E-8]	Mean Range: [1.6058911E-10, 3.7005259E-9]	Mean Range: [5.933976E-11, 4.0395283E-9]

Mean Absolute Deviation

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 6.7502737E-10	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 4.094274E-9	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 7.4961015E-9	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 9.639848E-10	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 8.4233964E-10
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [6.6546255E-11, 3.712884E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [6.104902E-11, 1.710582E-8]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [1.7359281E-9, 2.6547516E-8]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [1.6058911E-10, 3.7005259E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [5.933976E-11, 4.0395283E-9]

RMSE

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average RMSE: 1.1614769E-8	Average RMSE: 7.359815E-8	Average RMSE: 1.9383697E-7	Average RMSE: 1.7607082E-8	Average RMSE: 1.27909985E-8
RMSE Range: [7.71843E-10, 5.979417E-8]	RMSE Range: [1.0819674E-9, 3.1983313E-7]	RMSE Range: [4.7559777E-8, 6.144526E-7]	RMSE Range: [3.3173007E-9, 5.9416408E-8]	RMSE Range: [1.2426418E-9, 6.6252085E-8]

Deformation Model, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.65, R₀=2] Misfits

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Standard Deviation

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Standard Deviation: 5.8664504E-8	Average Standard Deviation: 5.6800826E-7	Average Standard Deviation: 2.339491E-6	Average Standard Deviation: 2.3662398E-7	Average Standard Deviation: 8.732675E-8
Standard Deviation Range: [1.9625541E-9, 2.1477331E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.0583315E-8, 2.7322994E-6]	Standard Deviation Range: [6.151514E-7, 5.7692405E-6]	Standard Deviation Range: [9.2772964E-8, 5.9266864E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.5047211E-8, 3.007497E-7]

Mean

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Mean: 3.5679848E-9	Average Mean: 2.6325676E-8	Average Mean: 7.5138914E-8	Average Mean: 1.0644786E-8	Average Mean: 7.0597E-9
Mean Range: [1.2431355E-10, 1.5809773E-8]	Mean Range: [6.8195016E-10, 1.2219236E-7]	Mean Range: [1.8684354E-8, 2.0145517E-7]	Mean Range: [3.0897191E-9, 3.2854306E-8]	Mean Range: [8.2966095E-10, 2.5292442E-8]

Mean Absolute Deviation

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 3.5679848E-9	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 2.6325676E-8	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 7.5138914E-8	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.0644786E-8	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 7.0597E-9
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [1.2431355E-10, 1.5809773E-8]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [6.8195016E-10, 1.2219236E-7]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [1.8684354E-8, 2.0145517E-7]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [3.0897191E-9, 3.2854306E-8]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [8.2966095E-10, 2.5292442E-8]

RMSE

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average RMSE: 5.875E-8	Average RMSE: 5.68394E-7	Average RMSE: 2.3397258E-6	Average RMSE: 2.3677151E-7	Average RMSE: 8.758063E-8
RMSE Range: [1.9657669E-9, 2.1509192E-7]	RMSE Range: [1.0602941E-8, 2.7338908E-6]	RMSE Range: [6.151784E-7, 5.77035E-6]	RMSE Range: [9.278569E-8, 5.9333155E-7]	RMSE Range: [1.5074916E-8, 3.016862E-7]

Deformation Model, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=2.12, R₀=4] Misfits

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Standard Deviation

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Standard Deviation: 1.1324971E-8	Average Standard Deviation: 2.6665639E-8	Average Standard Deviation: 5.6680054E-8	Average Standard Deviation: 4.6699253E-9	Average Standard Deviation: 5.1626396E-9
Standard Deviation Range: [4.681144E-10, 5.952089E-8]	Standard Deviation Range: [4.8305676E-10, 1.18968984E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [5.728605E-9, 1.7793359E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.324758E-10, 1.7875063E-8]	Standard Deviation Range: [2.824433E-12, 2.2276016E-8]

Mean

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Mean: 5.3798643E-10	Average Mean: 1.6397727E-9	Average Mean: 2.5833369E-9	Average Mean: 3.0278507E-10	Average Mean: 2.986756E-10
Mean Range: [3.388634E-11, 2.189939E-9]	Mean Range: [1.7161259E-11, 7.133846E-9]	Mean Range: [3.2742242E-10, 8.706884E-9]	Mean Range: [5.493283E-12, 1.3674443E-9]	Mean Range: [8.299979E-14, 1.4425735E-9]

Mean Absolute Deviation

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 5.3798643E-10	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.6397727E-9	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 2.5833369E-9	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 3.0278507E-10	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 2.986756E-10
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [3.388634E-11, 2.189939E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [1.7161259E-11, 7.133846E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [3.2742242E-10, 8.706884E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [5.493283E-12, 1.3674443E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [8.299979E-14, 1.4425735E-9]

RMSE

NSHM23 Evans Deformation Model	NSHM23 Geologic Deformation Model	NSHM23 Pollitz Deformation Model	NSHM23 Shen-Bird Deformation Model	NSHM23 Zeng Deformation Model
Average RMSE: 1.1333202E-8	Average RMSE: 2.670562E-8	Average RMSE: 5.6716985E-8	Average RMSE: 4.6783146E-9	Average RMSE: 5.169352E-9
RMSE Range: [4.691266E-10, 5.9534074E-8]	RMSE Range: [4.83153E-10, 1.1908975E-7]	RMSE Range: [5.7354845E-9, 1.7806973E-7]	RMSE Range: [1.3253248E-10, 1.7904583E-8]	RMSE Range: [2.824433E-12, 2.2313078E-8]

Scaling Relationship

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Scaling Relationship Average Constraint Fits

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Average misfits across all constraints as a function of Scaling Relationship choice

Choice	Quantity	Average Constraint Misfit
LogA+4.1	Standard Deviation	1.1162786
LogA+4.2	Standard Deviation	1.1226132
LogA+4.2, SqrtLen	Standard Deviation	1.0952806
LogA+4.3	Standard Deviation	1.1571114
WdthLmtd, CSD	Standard Deviation	1.0971863
WdthLmtd	Standard Deviation	1.1319339
LogA+4.1	Mean	-0.12357103
LogA+4.2	Mean	-0.1449217
LogA+4.2, SqrtLen	Mean	-0.12489955
LogA+4.3	Mean	-0.16345586
WdthLmtd, CSD	Mean	-0.117894664
WdthLmtd	Mean	-0.121477015
LogA+4.1	Mean Absolute Deviation	0.6224063
LogA+4.2	Mean Absolute Deviation	0.61042714
LogA+4.2, SqrtLen	Mean Absolute Deviation	0.60280764
LogA+4.3	Mean Absolute Deviation	0.6114413
WdthLmtd, CSD	Mean Absolute Deviation	0.5666707
WdthLmtd	Mean Absolute Deviation	0.621442
LogA+4.1	RMSE	1.127603
LogA+4.2	RMSE	1.1374238
LogA+4.2, SqrtLen	RMSE	1.1063863
LogA+4.3	RMSE	1.1811777
WdthLmtd, CSD	RMSE	1.105513
WdthLmtd	RMSE	1.1443043

Scaling Relationship, Uncertain Slip Rate Misfits

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Standard Deviation

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Standard Deviation: 1.2077054	Average Standard Deviation: 1.2966659	Average Standard Deviation: 1.1915162	Average Standard Deviation: 1.4501276	Average Standard Deviation: 1.268141	Average Standard Deviation: 1.1717895
Standard Deviation Range: [0.4511041, 5.077068]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.43616086, 6.0175414]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.44197157, 5.0179343]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.41923192, 8.6793995]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.44953993, 6.047096]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.5026647, 4.8595915]

Mean

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Mean: -0.18940443	Average Mean: -0.15172689	Average Mean: -0.16683687	Average Mean: -0.11964709	Average Mean: -0.11441517	Average Mean: -0.1749816
Mean Range: [-0.62189955, 0.1870462]	Mean Range: [-0.6252677, 0.26986888]	Mean Range: [-0.62181896, 0.20237812]	Mean Range: [-0.6132975, 0.37674075]	Mean Range: [-0.47961584, 0.3134156]	Mean Range: [-0.57378286, 0.18527648]

Mean Absolute Deviation

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.5641139	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.5503154	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.5445855	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.5445026	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.49408436	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.5626074
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.19686027, 1.5410904]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.18796296, 1.526484]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.18882889, 1.4910868]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.18326603, 1.5602381]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.16906978, 1.4556128]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.20183408, 1.4476004]

RMSE

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average RMSE: 1.225408	Average RMSE: 1.3099952	Average RMSE: 1.2062993	Average RMSE: 1.4609714	Average RMSE: 1.2771635	Average RMSE: 1.1874768
RMSE Range: [0.45355418, 5.0793185]	RMSE Range: [0.43820098, 6.017107]	RMSE Range: [0.4442273, 5.0209923]	RMSE Range: [0.42093718, 8.679381]	RMSE Range: [0.45078364, 6.046734]	RMSE Range: [0.50525105, 4.86258]

Scaling Relationship, Paleoseismic Event Rate Misfits

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Standard Deviation

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Standard Deviation: 1.702861	Average Standard Deviation: 1.7110374	Average Standard Deviation: 1.6871411	Average Standard Deviation: 1.743452	Average Standard Deviation: 1.6661061	Average Standard Deviation: 1.6750133
Standard Deviation Range: [0.23770414, 7.5258646]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.2461128, 8.341194]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.22571243, 7.4149113]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.23430021, 9.236274]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.19299613, 7.7483993]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.22389825, 7.3498387]

Mean

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Mean: -0.123378105	Average Mean: -0.2900945	Average Mean: -0.17013265	Average Mean: -0.43968558	Average Mean: -0.21521637	Average Mean: -0.21295586
Mean Range: [-2.843493, 0.46283257]	Mean Range: [-3.6369865, 0.08793676]	Mean Range: [-2.8120353, 0.31418753]	Mean Range: [-4.3193607, -0.065362185]	Mean Range: [-2.9736335, 0.17381568]	Mean Range: [-2.5936458, 0.22832161]

Mean Absolute Deviation

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.8608665	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.85963315	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.84050345	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.8944034	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.8041431	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.8270727
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.17352429, 3.5676768]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.1749752, 4.104291]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.17062868, 3.4663563]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.1888749, 4.687816]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.13956724, 3.555005]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.17198999, 3.2898455]

RMSE

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average RMSE: 1.7028399	Average RMSE: 1.7319773	Average RMSE: 1.6902622	Average RMSE: 1.8105727	Average RMSE: 1.6725899	Average RMSE: 1.6836226
RMSE Range: [0.24242374, 7.7687526]	RMSE Range: [0.27045682, 8.726877]	RMSE Range: [0.2360382, 7.6475644]	RMSE Range: [0.28311825, 9.947938]	RMSE Range: [0.20640858, 8.026165]	RMSE Range: [0.24279308, 7.5398936]

Scaling Relationship, Uncertain Parkfield Misfits

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Standard Deviation

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Standard Deviation: 0.5480373	Average Standard Deviation: 0.52985305	Average Standard Deviation: 0.5249471	Average Standard Deviation: 0.5184172	Average Standard Deviation: 0.43545213	Average Standard Deviation: 0.4907047
Standard Deviation Range: [0.12241518, 1.6018695]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.11438276, 1.6217164]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.11935392, 1.8059237]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.109915994, 1.7806177]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.08405323, 1.4637948]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.10193816, 1.4384594]

Mean

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Mean: -0.5480373	Average Mean: -0.52985305	Average Mean: -0.5249471	Average Mean: -0.5184172	Average Mean: -0.43545213	Average Mean: -0.4907047
Mean Range: [-1.6018695, -0.12241518]	Mean Range: [-1.6217164, -0.11438276]	Mean Range: [-1.8059237, -0.11935392]	Mean Range: [-1.7806177, -0.109915994]	Mean Range: [-1.4637948, -0.08405323]	Mean Range: [-1.4384594, -0.10193816]

Mean Absolute Deviation

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.5480373	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.52985305	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.5249471	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.5184172	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.43545213	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.4907047
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.12241518, 1.6018695]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.11438276, 1.6217164]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.11935392, 1.8059237]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.109915994, 1.7806177]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.08405323, 1.4637948]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.10193816, 1.4384594]

RMSE

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average RMSE: 0.5480373	Average RMSE: 0.52985305	Average RMSE: 0.5249471	Average RMSE: 0.5184172	Average RMSE: 0.43545213	Average RMSE: 0.4907047
RMSE Range: [0.12241518, 1.6018695]	RMSE Range: [0.11438276, 1.6217164]	RMSE Range: [0.11935392, 1.8059237]	RMSE Range: [0.109915994, 1.7806177]	RMSE Range: [0.08405323, 1.4637948]	RMSE Range: [0.10193816, 1.4384594]

Scaling Relationship, Uncertain MFD Equality Misfits

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Standard Deviation

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Standard Deviation: 1.0097781	Average Standard Deviation: 0.992013	Average Standard Deviation: 0.9855335	Average Standard Deviation: 0.9877159	Average Standard Deviation: 1.0773286	Average Standard Deviation: 1.1513604
Standard Deviation Range: [0.6326803, 3.28104]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.5938507, 3.8638422]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.5957202, 3.0938454]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.56134516, 4.3981156]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.6875823, 3.9881973]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.70662844, 3.1694436]

Mean

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Mean: -0.042147864	Average Mean: -0.037231434	Average Mean: -0.039003614	Average Mean: -0.033734214	Average Mean: -0.043797944	Average Mean: -0.01622176
Mean Range: [-0.51046145, 0.058988377]	Mean Range: [-0.51350695, 0.097749725]	Mean Range: [-0.51990396, 0.060282484]	Mean Range: [-0.5127424, 0.13902847]	Mean Range: [-0.5237584, 0.05088114]	Mean Range: [-0.50016046, 0.08270674]

Mean Absolute Deviation

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.58544487	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.5740816	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.5707106	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.5669553	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.6134448	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.6700059
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.34174266, 1.2467089]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.32389218, 1.2561679]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.32398343, 1.2470819]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.3082461, 1.2626215]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.36320892, 1.2123995]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.38509125, 1.2747046]

RMSE

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average RMSE: 1.0113872	Average RMSE: 0.9934556	Average RMSE: 0.98707885	Average RMSE: 0.98906606	Average RMSE: 1.0789428	Average RMSE: 1.1523439
RMSE Range: [0.6336102, 3.2794821]	RMSE Range: [0.5944197, 3.8647132]	RMSE Range: [0.59634054, 3.1081972]	RMSE Range: [0.56166494, 4.396955]	RMSE Range: [0.688148, 3.9894059]	RMSE Range: [0.70692295, 3.168091]

Scaling Relationship, Uncertain Subsection Total Nucleation Rates Misfits

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Standard Deviation

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Standard Deviation: 1.1130112	Average Standard Deviation: 1.0834963	Average Standard Deviation: 1.0872654	Average Standard Deviation: 1.0858443	Average Standard Deviation: 1.0389037	Average Standard Deviation: 1.1708016
Standard Deviation Range: [0.41928014, 2.9700346]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.41411006, 3.091823]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.41598737, 2.9635396]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.3984668, 3.4283478]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.40103087, 3.1279175]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.46811855, 3.3508224]

Mean

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Mean: 0.28511253	Average Mean: 0.28429732	Average Mean: 0.2764225	Average Mean: 0.2942048	Average Mean: 0.2194083	Average Mean: 0.2874788
Mean Range: [0.04975809, 1.0543416]	Mean Range: [0.045466874, 1.059323]	Mean Range: [0.049243752, 1.0211966]	Mean Range: [0.02993068, 1.1033187]	Mean Range: [0.021313528, 0.9494199]	Mean Range: [0.041642234, 0.95073014]

Mean Absolute Deviation

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.55356914	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.5382524	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.53329146	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.53292793	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.4862292	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.5568194
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.18787618, 1.5318129]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.17756501, 1.5112312]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.1788585, 1.481021]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.17173639, 1.5474101]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.16317786, 1.4519545]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.19625032, 1.4408591]

RMSE

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average RMSE: 1.1503427	Average RMSE: 1.1218377	Average RMSE: 1.1233441	Average RMSE: 1.1268612	Average RMSE: 1.0634167	Average RMSE: 1.2073739
RMSE Range: [0.42365044, 3.1513681]	RMSE Range: [0.41712597, 3.2679932]	RMSE Range: [0.41885486, 3.1342936]	RMSE Range: [0.40465355, 3.601211]	RMSE Range: [0.4015609, 3.2685575]	RMSE Range: [0.46992522, 3.4827914]

Scaling Relationship, Laplacian Smoothing (select parents) Misfits

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Standard Deviation

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Standard Deviation: 8.65055E-5	Average Standard Deviation: 8.233089E-5	Average Standard Deviation: 8.761822E-5	Average Standard Deviation: 8.603813E-5	Average Standard Deviation: 6.834381E-5	Average Standard Deviation: 5.7248864E-5
Standard Deviation Range: [1.2805086E-5, 3.3679992E-4]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.0358389E-5, 3.203484E-4]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.2960009E-5, 3.2572466E-4]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.26544965E-5, 3.9993253E-4]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.0105975E-5, 2.9264923E-4]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.1942416E-5, 1.991571E-4]

Mean

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Mean: -8.84863E-6	Average Mean: -8.526578E-6	Average Mean: -8.39902E-6	Average Mean: -9.49367E-6	Average Mean: -8.240939E-6	Average Mean: -7.020805E-6
Mean Range: [-2.6614902E-5, 1.3770813E-6]	Mean Range: [-2.5091222E-5, 1.0302815E-6]	Mean Range: [-2.3078072E-5, 1.6099939E-6]	Mean Range: [-3.4186887E-5, 9.338946E-7]	Mean Range: [-3.188072E-5, 2.798262E-7]	Mean Range: [-1.8932018E-5, 5.6034133E-7]

Mean Absolute Deviation

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 4.4928915E-5	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 4.0077433E-5	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 4.384619E-5	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 3.7670463E-5	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 3.2704695E-5	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 2.8217533E-5
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [5.628657E-6, 1.4354888E-4]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [4.6847626E-6, 1.2844134E-4]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [5.7043653E-6, 1.3707216E-4]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [5.2424534E-6, 1.2473582E-4]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [5.615913E-6, 1.2147137E-4]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [5.548265E-6, 9.0669855E-5]

RMSE

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average RMSE: 8.6879954E-5	Average RMSE: 8.2702405E-5	Average RMSE: 8.794708E-5	Average RMSE: 8.6473156E-5	Average RMSE: 6.878408E-5	Average RMSE: 5.7638365E-5
RMSE Range: [1.311592E-5, 3.368847E-4]	RMSE Range: [1.0375307E-5, 3.2035838E-4]	RMSE Range: [1.3140629E-5, 3.256449E-4]	RMSE Range: [1.2847215E-5, 4.0008503E-4]	RMSE Range: [1.0474247E-5, 2.9364612E-4]	RMSE Range: [1.2003422E-5, 1.9909738E-4]

Scaling Relationship, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Minimum from 2 models Misfits

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Standard Deviation

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Standard Deviation: 1.0122027E-9	Average Standard Deviation: 9.2146224E-10	Average Standard Deviation: 9.725616E-10	Average Standard Deviation: 9.62085E-10	Average Standard Deviation: 8.33267E-10	Average Standard Deviation: 9.498616E-10
Standard Deviation Range: [1.5167248E-14, 8.155831E-8]	Standard Deviation Range: [3.9989554E-14, 8.156624E-8]	Standard Deviation Range: [2.5004462E-12, 1.2407443E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [2.4563398E-25, 6.9040375E-8]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.0, 1.1542158E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.6937906E-12, 2.9522E-8]

Mean

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Mean: 2.4364146E-11	Average Mean: 2.3129464E-11	Average Mean: 2.381775E-11	Average Mean: 2.5451417E-11	Average Mean: 1.8221653E-11	Average Mean: 2.7978708E-11
Mean Range: [2.3296082E-16, 1.5085099E-9]	Mean Range: [5.882089E-16, 1.5538489E-9]	Mean Range: [3.6779224E-14, 2.2984215E-9]	Mean Range: [3.6130457E-27, 1.0824478E-9]	Mean Range: [0.0, 2.2865063E-9]	Mean Range: [2.5440145E-14, 6.736806E-10]

Mean Absolute Deviation

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 2.4364146E-11	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 2.3129464E-11	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 2.381775E-11	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 2.5451417E-11	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.8221653E-11	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 2.7978708E-11
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [2.3296082E-16, 1.5085099E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [5.882089E-16, 1.5538489E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [3.6779224E-14, 2.2984215E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [3.6130457E-27, 1.0824478E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.0, 2.2865063E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [2.5440145E-14, 6.736806E-10]

RMSE

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average RMSE: 1.012408E-9	Average RMSE: 9.2168184E-10	Average RMSE: 9.727769E-10	Average RMSE: 9.62343E-10	Average RMSE: 8.333903E-10	Average RMSE: 9.502029E-10
RMSE Range: [1.5167397E-14, 8.156344E-8]	RMSE Range: [3.9989554E-14, 8.157222E-8]	RMSE Range: [2.5004462E-12, 1.2408229E-7]	RMSE Range: [2.4563398E-25, 6.904139E-8]	RMSE Range: [0.0, 1.1543174E-7]	RMSE Range: [1.6937984E-12, 2.9524903E-8]

Scaling Relationship, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.95, R₀=3] Misfits

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Standard Deviation

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Standard Deviation: 3.845379E-8	Average Standard Deviation: 5.0178162E-8	Average Standard Deviation: 3.501235E-8	Average Standard Deviation: 6.8973584E-8	Average Standard Deviation: 4.0526352E-8	Average Standard Deviation: 3.422346E-8
Standard Deviation Range: [1.4879752E-9, 2.8540407E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.5245086E-9, 4.001311E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.2417567E-9, 2.6874145E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.0904467E-9, 6.1414227E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [7.693168E-10, 2.9818548E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.0807072E-9, 2.1623067E-7]

Mean

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Mean: 1.886943E-9	Average Mean: 2.5284008E-9	Average Mean: 1.7729516E-9	Average Mean: 3.466935E-9	Average Mean: 2.1378466E-9	Average Mean: 1.7412654E-9
Mean Range: [7.9288326E-11, 1.1110833E-8]	Mean Range: [6.76253E-11, 1.6582966E-8]	Mean Range: [5.933976E-11, 1.0619902E-8]	Mean Range: [6.8814426E-11, 2.6547516E-8]	Mean Range: [6.6546255E-11, 1.3777175E-8]	Mean Range: [6.104902E-11, 9.177649E-9]

Mean Absolute Deviation

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.886943E-9	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 2.5284008E-9	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.7729516E-9	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 3.466935E-9	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 2.1378466E-9	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.7412654E-9
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [7.9288326E-11, 1.1110833E-8]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [6.76253E-11, 1.6582966E-8]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [5.933976E-11, 1.0619902E-8]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [6.8814426E-11, 2.6547516E-8]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [6.6546255E-11, 1.3777175E-8]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [6.104902E-11, 9.177649E-9]

RMSE

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average RMSE: 3.8486093E-8	Average RMSE: 5.0223473E-8	Average RMSE: 3.504494E-8	Average RMSE: 6.903511E-8	Average RMSE: 4.0568153E-8	Average RMSE: 3.425518E-8
RMSE Range: [1.4896776E-9, 2.85492E-7]	RMSE Range: [1.5283089E-9, 4.0030312E-7]	RMSE Range: [1.2426418E-9, 2.688233E-7]	RMSE Range: [1.0921237E-9, 6.144526E-7]	RMSE Range: [7.71843E-10, 2.9837582E-7]	RMSE Range: [1.0819674E-9, 2.163141E-7]

Scaling Relationship, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.65, R₀=2] Misfits

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Standard Deviation

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Standard Deviation: 4.182752E-7	Average Standard Deviation: 5.332457E-7	Average Standard Deviation: 3.9640287E-7	Average Standard Deviation: 6.564401E-7	Average Standard Deviation: 3.3496082E-7	Average Standard Deviation: 2.9874903E-7
Standard Deviation Range: [8.329742E-9, 3.6821275E-6]	Standard Deviation Range: [2.1223556E-8, 5.0155904E-6]	Standard Deviation Range: [6.0256005E-9, 4.258236E-6]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.7338289E-8, 5.7692405E-6]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.9625541E-9, 3.6313409E-6]	Standard Deviation Range: [3.739622E-9, 2.5431668E-6]

Mean

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Mean: 1.6784858E-8	Average Mean: 2.2072399E-8	Average Mean: 1.5942575E-8	Average Mean: 2.8106092E-8	Average Mean: 1.5701216E-8	Average Mean: 1.2948363E-8
Mean Range: [3.2827363E-10, 1.2566603E-7]	Mean Range: [8.7269586E-10, 1.6954958E-7]	Mean Range: [2.0691925E-10, 1.4210116E-7]	Mean Range: [7.5196893E-10, 2.0145517E-7]	Mean Range: [1.2431355E-10, 1.3086783E-7]	Mean Range: [2.391663E-10, 8.15198E-8]

Mean Absolute Deviation

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.6784858E-8	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 2.2072399E-8	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.5942575E-8	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 2.8106092E-8	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.5701216E-8	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.2948363E-8
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [3.2827363E-10, 1.2566603E-7]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [8.7269586E-10, 1.6954958E-7]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [2.0691925E-10, 1.4210116E-7]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [7.5196893E-10, 2.0145517E-7]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [1.2431355E-10, 1.3086783E-7]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [2.391663E-10, 8.15198E-8]

RMSE

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average RMSE: 4.184643E-7	Average RMSE: 5.335191E-7	Average RMSE: 3.9658363E-7	Average RMSE: 6.568178E-7	Average RMSE: 3.352448E-7	Average RMSE: 2.989396E-7
RMSE Range: [8.332551E-9, 3.6827353E-6]	RMSE Range: [2.123742E-8, 5.0163626E-6]	RMSE Range: [6.026506E-9, 4.25883E-6]	RMSE Range: [1.7346977E-8, 5.77035E-6]	RMSE Range: [1.9657669E-9, 3.6321833E-6]	RMSE Range: [3.745622E-9, 2.543411E-6]

Scaling Relationship, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=2.12, R₀=4] Misfits

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Standard Deviation

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Standard Deviation: 1.2072228E-8	Average Standard Deviation: 1.632362E-8	Average Standard Deviation: 1.28123645E-8	Average Standard Deviation: 2.2211267E-8	Average Standard Deviation: 1.3987363E-8	Average Standard Deviation: 1.16355015E-8
Standard Deviation Range: [4.9477195E-10, 7.413245E-8]	Standard Deviation Range: [2.824433E-12, 1.4696856E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.324758E-10, 9.846203E-8]	Standard Deviation Range: [4.0229078E-10, 1.7793359E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [4.681144E-10, 1.0099273E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [8.077366E-10, 1.141842E-7]

Mean

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Mean: 6.695841E-10	Average Mean: 9.016821E-10	Average Mean: 7.136009E-10	Average Mean: 1.2197641E-9	Average Mean: 8.0328105E-10	Average Mean: 7.094976E-10
Mean Range: [1.8361807E-11, 4.632302E-9]	Mean Range: [8.299979E-14, 6.7231976E-9]	Mean Range: [5.493283E-12, 5.919978E-9]	Mean Range: [1.9871322E-11, 8.706884E-9]	Mean Range: [2.8230208E-11, 4.983076E-9]	Mean Range: [4.024423E-11, 5.322521E-9]

Mean Absolute Deviation

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 6.695841E-10	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 9.016821E-10	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 7.136009E-10	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.2197641E-9	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 8.0328105E-10	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 7.094976E-10
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [1.8361807E-11, 4.632302E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [8.299979E-14, 6.7231976E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [5.493283E-12, 5.919978E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [1.9871322E-11, 8.706884E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [2.8230208E-11, 4.983076E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [4.024423E-11, 5.322521E-9]

RMSE

LogA+4.1, From Moment	LogA+4.2, From Moment	LogA+4.2, Sqrt Length	LogA+4.3, From Moment	Width Limited, Constant Stress Drop	Width Limited, From Moment
Average RMSE: 1.2086638E-8	Average RMSE: 1.6342481E-8	Average RMSE: 1.2827438E-8	Average RMSE: 2.223644E-8	Average RMSE: 1.40054075E-8	Average RMSE: 1.1654019E-8
RMSE Range: [4.949075E-10, 7.413981E-8]	RMSE Range: [2.824433E-12, 1.4704558E-7]	RMSE Range: [1.3253248E-10, 9.859739E-8]	RMSE Range: [4.0260775E-10, 1.7806973E-7]	RMSE Range: [4.691266E-10, 1.01057736E-7]	RMSE Range: [8.08776E-10, 1.14248564E-7]

Supra-Seismogenic b-value

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Supra-Seismogenic b-value Average Constraint Fits

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Average misfits across all constraints as a function of Supra-Seismogenic b-value choice

Choice	Quantity	Average Constraint Misfit
b=0.0	Standard Deviation	1.490023
b=0.25	Standard Deviation	1.2309572
b=0.5	Standard Deviation	1.049563
b=0.75	Standard Deviation	0.9469421
b=1.0	Standard Deviation	0.88285136
b=0.0	Mean	-0.21832213
b=0.25	Mean	-0.1583716
b=0.5	Mean	-0.11860047
b=0.75	Mean	-0.091541186
b=1.0	Mean	-0.07668113
b=0.0	Mean Absolute Deviation	0.90349394
b=0.25	Mean Absolute Deviation	0.71101373
b=0.5	Mean Absolute Deviation	0.56445736
b=0.75	Mean Absolute Deviation	0.46068144
b=1.0	Mean Absolute Deviation	0.38968277
b=0.0	RMSE	1.5199815
b=0.25	RMSE	1.249285
b=0.5	RMSE	1.0600379
b=0.75	RMSE	0.95295835
b=1.0	RMSE	0.8864107

Supra-Seismogenic b-value, Uncertain Slip Rate Misfits

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Standard Deviation

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Standard Deviation: 1.5745641	Average Standard Deviation: 1.3064426	Average Standard Deviation: 1.1350768	Average Standard Deviation: 1.1282486	Average Standard Deviation: 1.1772892
Standard Deviation Range: [1.0831151, 5.724734]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.8681171, 5.9323044]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.6842499, 6.2501426]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.54536057, 6.591571]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.41923192, 8.6793995]

Mean

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Mean: -0.32760975	Average Mean: -0.21013097	Average Mean: -0.12718195	Average Mean: -0.068480805	Average Mean: -0.03077322
Mean Range: [-0.6252677, -0.024659248]	Mean Range: [-0.46301708, 0.093931675]	Mean Range: [-0.33052215, 0.20918068]	Mean Range: [-0.23210739, 0.29850706]	Mean Range: [-0.16255139, 0.37674075]

Mean Absolute Deviation

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.88150346	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.6622065	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.4955611	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.37772292	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.29984695
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.6133817, 1.5602381]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.44437593, 1.3424442]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.31388873, 1.1578203]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.2184047, 1.0110868]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.16906978, 0.9061886]

RMSE

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average RMSE: 1.6097431	Average RMSE: 1.324657	Average RMSE: 1.1436783	Average RMSE: 1.1320815	Average RMSE: 1.1792685
RMSE Range: [1.0994776, 5.7242613]	RMSE Range: [0.8764146, 5.932503]	RMSE Range: [0.6884288, 6.253068]	RMSE Range: [0.5472346, 6.5977216]	RMSE Range: [0.42093718, 8.679381]

Supra-Seismogenic b-value, Paleoseismic Event Rate Misfits

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Standard Deviation

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Standard Deviation: 1.8345362	Average Standard Deviation: 1.7413315	Average Standard Deviation: 1.677834	Average Standard Deviation: 1.6367327	Average Standard Deviation: 1.5975747
Standard Deviation Range: [0.25745514, 9.218618]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.26508662, 9.22865]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.27114064, 9.221964]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.2372295, 9.2333]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.19299613, 9.236274]

Mean

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Mean: -0.29457235	Average Mean: -0.26707837	Average Mean: -0.23885626	Average Mean: -0.21323289	Average Mean: -0.19581267
Mean Range: [-4.3193607, 0.46283257]	Mean Range: [-4.073604, 0.3250725]	Mean Range: [-3.9134035, 0.22267295]	Mean Range: [-3.8000662, 0.25627583]	Mean Range: [-3.7168717, 0.22832161]

Mean Absolute Deviation

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.040272	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.9155321	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.82092106	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.75547755	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.70664907
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.1749752, 4.687816]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.17680289, 4.4295774]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.18196015, 4.2604504]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.17334735, 4.1428914]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.13956724, 4.0574327]

RMSE

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average RMSE: 1.8660231	Average RMSE: 1.7644867	Average RMSE: 1.693584	Average RMSE: 1.6474268	Average RMSE: 1.6050333
RMSE Range: [0.27045682, 9.947938]	RMSE Range: [0.27204776, 9.77302]	RMSE Range: [0.2820424, 9.736697]	RMSE Range: [0.2358227, 9.724247]	RMSE Range: [0.20640858, 9.714646]

Supra-Seismogenic b-value, Uncertain Parkfield Misfits

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Standard Deviation

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Standard Deviation: 0.8742268	Average Standard Deviation: 0.6287496	Average Standard Deviation: 0.44917476	Average Standard Deviation: 0.32963982	Average Standard Deviation: 0.2577186
Standard Deviation Range: [0.503098, 1.8059237]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.3314103, 1.3539995]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.20812526, 1.1269433]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.11734356, 0.91932625]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.08405323, 0.7847922]

Mean

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Mean: -0.8742268	Average Mean: -0.6287496	Average Mean: -0.44917476	Average Mean: -0.32963982	Average Mean: -0.2577186
Mean Range: [-1.8059237, -0.503098]	Mean Range: [-1.3539995, -0.3314103]	Mean Range: [-1.1269433, -0.20812526]	Mean Range: [-0.91932625, -0.11734356]	Mean Range: [-0.7847922, -0.08405323]

Mean Absolute Deviation

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.8742268	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.6287496	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.44917476	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.32963982	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.2577186
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.503098, 1.8059237]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.3314103, 1.3539995]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.20812526, 1.1269433]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.11734356, 0.91932625]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.08405323, 0.7847922]

RMSE

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average RMSE: 0.8742268	Average RMSE: 0.6287496	Average RMSE: 0.44917476	Average RMSE: 0.32963982	Average RMSE: 0.2577186
RMSE Range: [0.503098, 1.8059237]	RMSE Range: [0.3314103, 1.3539995]	RMSE Range: [0.20812526, 1.1269433]	RMSE Range: [0.11734356, 0.91932625]	RMSE Range: [0.08405323, 0.7847922]

Supra-Seismogenic b-value, Uncertain MFD Equality Misfits

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Standard Deviation

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Standard Deviation: 1.4791229	Average Standard Deviation: 1.1794579	Average Standard Deviation: 0.97259945	Average Standard Deviation: 0.8263408	Average Standard Deviation: 0.7122534
Standard Deviation Range: [1.225936, 3.3627656]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.9645245, 4.3981156]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.79486734, 4.0595093]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.66708523, 4.294419]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.56134516, 3.995033]

Mean

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Mean: -0.11083997	Average Mean: -0.04289089	Average Mean: -0.014419747	Average Mean: -0.0045392863	Average Mean: -0.0040907906
Mean Range: [-0.5237584, 0.050011616]	Mean Range: [-0.38079688, 0.07498943]	Mean Range: [-0.2854339, 0.08270674]	Mean Range: [-0.20730431, 0.13902847]	Mean Range: [-0.15744844, 0.11766733]

Mean Absolute Deviation

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.8414657	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.69350654	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.57209545	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.476507	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.4002946
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.6826429, 1.2747046]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.5488931, 1.1255796]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.44747472, 1.0239459]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.36689353, 0.92323875]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.3082461, 0.7906545]

RMSE

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average RMSE: 1.4842017	Average RMSE: 1.1809268	Average RMSE: 0.97308177	Average RMSE: 0.8264525	Average RMSE: 0.7122326
RMSE Range: [1.2285123, 3.375657]	RMSE Range: [0.9646529, 4.396955]	RMSE Range: [0.794866, 4.0577955]	RMSE Range: [0.6677215, 4.29438]	RMSE Range: [0.56166494, 3.9946363]

Supra-Seismogenic b-value, Uncertain Subsection Total Nucleation Rates Misfits

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Standard Deviation

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Standard Deviation: 1.6876652	Average Standard Deviation: 1.298804	Average Standard Deviation: 1.0131303	Average Standard Deviation: 0.8137486	Average Standard Deviation: 0.66942084
Standard Deviation Range: [1.1502423, 3.4283478]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.87261564, 3.2820666]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.66616756, 3.2876954]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.5042534, 3.1530833]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.3984668, 2.9755094]

Mean

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Mean: 0.51563823	Average Mean: 0.35699183	Average Mean: 0.23663034	Average Mean: 0.15818685	Average Mean: 0.10498963
Mean Range: [0.30415097, 1.1033187]	Mean Range: [0.19289772, 0.96501046]	Mean Range: [0.111033924, 0.7931111]	Mean Range: [0.05070852, 0.6476607]	Mean Range: [0.021313528, 0.54021484]

Mean Absolute Deviation

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.8800017	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.65507406	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.48453432	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.36405987	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.28390464
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.61585206, 1.5474101]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.4433059, 1.3209807]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.31242946, 1.1103089]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.21453232, 0.91638833]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.16317786, 0.7944305]

RMSE

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average RMSE: 1.7657129	Average RMSE: 1.3476052	Average RMSE: 1.0406708	Average RMSE: 0.82919097	Average RMSE: 0.6778005
RMSE Range: [1.1978544, 3.601211]	RMSE Range: [0.8967353, 3.4207058]	RMSE Range: [0.6752985, 3.3570082]	RMSE Range: [0.50675166, 3.204029]	RMSE Range: [0.4015609, 3.023882]

Supra-Seismogenic b-value, Laplacian Smoothing (select parents) Misfits

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Standard Deviation

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Standard Deviation: 8.42253E-5	Average Standard Deviation: 8.13344E-5	Average Standard Deviation: 7.7394725E-5	Average Standard Deviation: 7.36922E-5	Average Standard Deviation: 7.342456E-5
Standard Deviation Range: [2.6147642E-5, 3.475354E-4]	Standard Deviation Range: [2.2479286E-5, 3.6175115E-4]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.6863449E-5, 3.7700383E-4]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.1834617E-5, 3.873235E-4]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.0105975E-5, 3.9993253E-4]

Mean

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Mean: -8.969422E-6	Average Mean: -8.712054E-6	Average Mean: -8.340473E-6	Average Mean: -8.168041E-6	Average Mean: -7.918044E-6
Mean Range: [-3.4186887E-5, 1.6099939E-6]	Mean Range: [-3.3338114E-5, 7.255037E-7]	Mean Range: [-3.0004452E-5, 7.542859E-7]	Mean Range: [-3.0211837E-5, 4.3183835E-8]	Mean Range: [-3.188072E-5, -1.6426029E-7]

Mean Absolute Deviation

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 4.0855346E-5	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 4.0504474E-5	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 3.843994E-5	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 3.5492463E-5	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 3.424547E-5
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [1.2981371E-5, 1.3360062E-4]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [9.172331E-6, 1.358917E-4]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [6.782769E-6, 1.368931E-4]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [5.6426106E-6, 1.3980152E-4]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [4.6847626E-6, 1.4354888E-4]

RMSE

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average RMSE: 8.4620886E-5	Average RMSE: 8.1727565E-5	Average RMSE: 7.778494E-5	Average RMSE: 7.4090385E-5	Average RMSE: 7.379709E-5
RMSE Range: [2.6612512E-5, 3.4816054E-4]	RMSE Range: [2.2842325E-5, 3.6211955E-4]	RMSE Range: [1.7081498E-5, 3.772007E-4]	RMSE Range: [1.193662E-5, 3.874731E-4]	RMSE Range: [1.0375307E-5, 4.0008503E-4]

Supra-Seismogenic b-value, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Minimum from 2 models Misfits

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Standard Deviation

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Standard Deviation: 1.7808782E-9	Average Standard Deviation: 9.84479E-10	Average Standard Deviation: 8.172043E-10	Average Standard Deviation: 5.3630683E-10	Average Standard Deviation: 5.906652E-10
Standard Deviation Range: [5.853243E-11, 9.6677674E-8]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.5262487E-11, 1.1542158E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [8.531161E-12, 1.2407443E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [2.4563398E-25, 6.9040375E-8]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.0, 8.341977E-8]

Mean

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Mean: 5.152117E-11	Average Mean: 2.6334608E-11	Average Mean: 1.8479612E-11	Average Mean: 1.1228253E-11	Average Mean: 1.1572306E-11
Mean Range: [1.4701073E-12, 1.5899113E-9]	Mean Range: [5.724526E-13, 2.2865063E-9]	Mean Range: [2.652727E-13, 2.2984215E-9]	Mean Range: [3.6130457E-27, 1.0824478E-9]	Mean Range: [0.0, 1.5538489E-9]

Mean Absolute Deviation

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 5.152117E-11	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 2.6334608E-11	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.8479612E-11	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.1228253E-11	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.1572306E-11
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [1.4701073E-12, 1.5899113E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [5.724526E-13, 2.2865063E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [2.652727E-13, 2.2984215E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [3.6130457E-27, 1.0824478E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.0, 1.5538489E-9]

RMSE

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average RMSE: 1.7814854E-9	Average RMSE: 9.847523E-10	Average RMSE: 8.173408E-10	Average RMSE: 5.363721E-10	Average RMSE: 5.907185E-10
RMSE Range: [5.854456E-11, 9.668029E-8]	RMSE Range: [1.5271569E-11, 1.1543174E-7]	RMSE Range: [8.534944E-12, 1.2408229E-7]	RMSE Range: [2.4563398E-25, 6.904139E-8]	RMSE Range: [0.0, 8.342174E-8]

Supra-Seismogenic b-value, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.95, R₀=3] Misfits

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Standard Deviation

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Standard Deviation: 9.925837E-8	Average Standard Deviation: 6.020277E-8	Average Standard Deviation: 3.2479427E-8	Average Standard Deviation: 1.9014436E-8	Average Standard Deviation: 1.1851409E-8
Standard Deviation Range: [4.329048E-9, 6.1414227E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [2.9937886E-9, 4.7296064E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.5037501E-9, 3.001929E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [9.07247E-10, 1.7384883E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [7.693168E-10, 1.3006257E-7]

Mean

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Mean: 5.2653752E-9	Average Mean: 3.1351615E-9	Average Mean: 1.558603E-9	Average Mean: 8.395871E-10	Average Mean: 4.798919E-10
Mean Range: [3.520698E-10, 2.6547516E-8]	Mean Range: [2.636223E-10, 1.7618792E-8]	Mean Range: [1.0583182E-10, 1.0995404E-8]	Mean Range: [5.933976E-11, 5.9918683E-9]	Mean Range: [6.104902E-11, 4.2317163E-9]

Mean Absolute Deviation

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 5.2653752E-9	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 3.1351615E-9	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.558603E-9	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 8.395871E-10	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 4.798919E-10
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [3.520698E-10, 2.6547516E-8]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [2.636223E-10, 1.7618792E-8]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [1.0583182E-10, 1.0995404E-8]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [5.933976E-11, 5.9918683E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [6.104902E-11, 4.2317163E-9]

RMSE

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average RMSE: 9.9360285E-8	Average RMSE: 6.0262956E-8	Average RMSE: 3.2505113E-8	Average RMSE: 1.9025888E-8	Average RMSE: 1.18565495E-8
RMSE Range: [4.34149E-9, 6.144526E-7]	RMSE Range: [3.0040244E-9, 4.7308598E-7]	RMSE Range: [1.5067914E-9, 3.0025333E-7]	RMSE Range: [9.09282E-10, 1.7386753E-7]	RMSE Range: [7.71843E-10, 1.3007565E-7]

Supra-Seismogenic b-value, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.65, R₀=2] Misfits

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Standard Deviation

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Standard Deviation: 9.457055E-7	Average Standard Deviation: 5.78665E-7	Average Standard Deviation: 3.2515996E-7	Average Standard Deviation: 2.0946283E-7	Average Standard Deviation: 1.3940151E-7
Standard Deviation Range: [6.3824324E-8, 5.7692405E-6]	Standard Deviation Range: [2.896074E-8, 4.627883E-6]	Standard Deviation Range: [8.680157E-9, 3.2462444E-6]	Standard Deviation Range: [4.8300874E-9, 2.4006242E-6]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.9625541E-9, 1.4278962E-6]

Mean

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Mean: 4.2740616E-8	Average Mean: 2.4259208E-8	Average Mean: 1.312711E-8	Average Mean: 7.894837E-9	Average Mean: 4.941149E-9
Mean Range: [3.9081782E-9, 2.0145517E-7]	Mean Range: [1.8938124E-9, 1.5298457E-7]	Mean Range: [5.084019E-10, 1.01501605E-7]	Mean Range: [3.3412897E-10, 7.192624E-8]	Mean Range: [1.2431355E-10, 4.2512557E-8]

Mean Absolute Deviation

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 4.2740616E-8	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 2.4259208E-8	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.312711E-8	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 7.894837E-9	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 4.941149E-9
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [3.9081782E-9, 2.0145517E-7]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [1.8938124E-9, 1.5298457E-7]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [5.084019E-10, 1.01501605E-7]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [3.3412897E-10, 7.192624E-8]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [1.2431355E-10, 4.2512557E-8]

RMSE

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average RMSE: 9.463647E-7	Average RMSE: 5.7897836E-7	Average RMSE: 3.253181E-7	Average RMSE: 2.095415E-7	Average RMSE: 1.3943834E-7
RMSE Range: [6.391587E-8, 5.77035E-6]	RMSE Range: [2.9009893E-8, 4.62848E-6]	RMSE Range: [8.6912255E-9, 3.2464764E-6]	RMSE Range: [4.8395132E-9, 2.4006997E-6]	RMSE Range: [1.9657669E-9, 1.4279332E-6]

Supra-Seismogenic b-value, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=2.12, R₀=4] Misfits

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Standard Deviation

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Standard Deviation: 3.323056E-8	Average Standard Deviation: 1.9112269E-8	Average Standard Deviation: 9.4914085E-9	Average Standard Deviation: 6.7771935E-9	Average Standard Deviation: 5.5905223E-9
Standard Deviation Range: [3.815898E-9, 1.7793359E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.653628E-9, 1.1868836E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [5.4975685E-10, 8.043687E-8]	Standard Deviation Range: [4.9477195E-10, 9.012408E-8]	Standard Deviation Range: [2.824433E-12, 7.003732E-8]

Mean

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Mean: 2.0408106E-9	Average Mean: 1.1086639E-9	Average Mean: 5.213134E-10	Average Mean: 2.9767994E-10	Average Mean: 2.1270706E-10
Mean Range: [2.8074348E-10, 8.706884E-9]	Mean Range: [1.14515425E-10, 5.890941E-9]	Mean Range: [2.1219566E-11, 3.8130854E-9]	Mean Range: [1.8589321E-11, 3.3190468E-9]	Mean Range: [8.299979E-14, 2.669616E-9]

Mean Absolute Deviation

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 2.0408106E-9	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.1086639E-9	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 5.213134E-10	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 2.9767994E-10	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 2.1270706E-10
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [2.8074348E-10, 8.706884E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [1.14515425E-10, 5.890941E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [2.1219566E-11, 3.8130854E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [1.8589321E-11, 3.3190468E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [8.299979E-14, 2.669616E-9]

RMSE

b=0.0	b=0.25	b=0.5	b=0.75	b=1.0
Average RMSE: 3.328093E-8	Average RMSE: 1.9137193E-8	Average RMSE: 9.50217E-9	Average RMSE: 6.7810793E-9	Average RMSE: 5.5923164E-9
RMSE Range: [3.8245678E-9, 1.7806973E-7]	RMSE Range: [1.656837E-9, 1.1873054E-7]	RMSE Range: [5.4992894E-10, 8.04925E-8]	RMSE Range: [4.949075E-10, 9.013143E-8]	RMSE Range: [2.824433E-12, 7.0057965E-8]

Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties

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Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties Average Constraint Fits

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Average misfits across all constraints as a function of Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties choice

Choice	Quantity	Average Constraint Misfit
EvenFit	Standard Deviation	0.94614404
OverFit	Standard Deviation	1.6802226
UnderFit	Standard Deviation	0.7338353
EvenFit	Mean	-0.13521512
OverFit	Mean	-0.17448246
UnderFit	Mean	-0.08841232
EvenFit	Mean Absolute Deviation	0.5747178
OverFit	Mean Absolute Deviation	0.8047364
UnderFit	Mean Absolute Deviation	0.43814334
EvenFit	RMSE	0.96344596
OverFit	RMSE	1.6908928
UnderFit	RMSE	0.7468653

Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties, Uncertain Slip Rate Misfits

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Standard Deviation

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Standard Deviation: 1.0897001	Average Standard Deviation: 1.7937144	Average Standard Deviation: 0.90955824
Standard Deviation Range: [0.6237743, 2.5512576]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.9089155, 8.6793995]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.41923192, 2.1641395]

Mean

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Mean: -0.16334693	Average Mean: -0.13894458	Average Mean: -0.1562145
Mean Range: [-0.57786995, -0.0011150611]	Mean Range: [-0.60922325, 0.37674075]	Mean Range: [-0.6252677, -0.03386232]

Mean Absolute Deviation

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.5330495	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.6256638	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.47139117
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.22433938, 1.3114655]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.3160268, 1.5602381]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.16906978, 1.2679648]

RMSE

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average RMSE: 1.1038519	Average RMSE: 1.8058885	Average RMSE: 0.92391664
RMSE Range: [0.6260251, 2.6075375]	RMSE Range: [0.9112665, 8.679381]	RMSE Range: [0.42093718, 2.2515326]

Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties, Paleoseismic Event Rate Misfits

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Standard Deviation

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Standard Deviation: 1.0402017	Average Standard Deviation: 3.697667	Average Standard Deviation: 0.35493693
Standard Deviation Range: [0.7370617, 3.17298]	Standard Deviation Range: [3.471846, 9.236274]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.19299613, 0.71518517]

Mean

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Mean: -0.24013822	Average Mean: -0.41210383	Average Mean: -0.07348949
Mean Range: [-2.149908, 0.46283257]	Mean Range: [-4.3193607, 0.11122991]	Mean Range: [-0.33947587, 0.25627583]

Mean Absolute Deviation

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.71206313	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.5790129	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.25223508
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.33694386, 2.4175982]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [1.3005127, 4.687816]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.13956724, 0.40170425]

RMSE

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average RMSE: 1.0771648	Average RMSE: 3.693845	Average RMSE: 0.37492245
RMSE Range: [0.7305099, 3.678198]	RMSE Range: [3.4516528, 9.947938]	RMSE Range: [0.20640858, 0.7093089]

Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties, Uncertain Parkfield Misfits

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Standard Deviation

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Standard Deviation: 0.4993049	Average Standard Deviation: 0.61209255	Average Standard Deviation: 0.4123083
Standard Deviation Range: [0.16045064, 1.758095]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.22756933, 1.8059237]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.08405323, 1.7806177]

Mean

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Mean: -0.4993049	Average Mean: -0.61209255	Average Mean: -0.4123083
Mean Range: [-1.758095, -0.16045064]	Mean Range: [-1.8059237, -0.22756933]	Mean Range: [-1.7806177, -0.08405323]

Mean Absolute Deviation

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.4993049	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.61209255	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.4123083
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.16045064, 1.758095]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.22756933, 1.8059237]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.08405323, 1.7806177]

RMSE

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average RMSE: 0.4993049	Average RMSE: 0.61209255	Average RMSE: 0.4123083
RMSE Range: [0.16045064, 1.758095]	RMSE Range: [0.22756933, 1.8059237]	RMSE Range: [0.08405323, 1.7806177]

Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties, Uncertain MFD Equality Misfits

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Standard Deviation

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Standard Deviation: 1.0372001	Average Standard Deviation: 1.046596	Average Standard Deviation: 1.0180686
Standard Deviation Range: [0.618988, 2.4306943]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.601255, 4.3981156]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.56134516, 2.2986403]

Mean

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Mean: -0.0376213	Average Mean: -0.033043917	Average Mean: -0.035403196
Mean Range: [-0.5237584, 0.08270674]	Mean Range: [-0.4575115, 0.13902847]	Mean Range: [-0.51990396, 0.07828665]

Mean Absolute Deviation

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.60193676	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.59927386	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.589111
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.33716983, 1.2195548]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.3349272, 1.2747046]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.3082461, 1.179232]

RMSE

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average RMSE: 1.0386996	Average RMSE: 1.0478671	Average RMSE: 1.0195706
RMSE Range: [0.61869335, 2.4635518]	RMSE Range: [0.6018525, 4.396955]	RMSE Range: [0.56166494, 2.327609]

Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties, Uncertain Subsection Total Nucleation Rates Misfits

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Standard Deviation

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Standard Deviation: 1.0643137	Average Standard Deviation: 1.2510433	Average Standard Deviation: 0.9743044
Standard Deviation Range: [0.5059746, 2.725647]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.62811244, 3.4283478]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.3984668, 2.6754417]

Mean

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Mean: 0.26433572	Average Mean: 0.32377252	Average Mean: 0.23535387
Mean Range: [0.02993068, 0.83479065]	Mean Range: [0.055379514, 1.1033187]	Mean Range: [0.021313528, 0.72841114]

Mean Absolute Deviation

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.5272348	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.60763884	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.46567112
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.21834157, 1.3026099]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.28941733, 1.5474101]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.16317786, 1.258999]

RMSE

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average RMSE: 1.0982087	Average RMSE: 1.294771	Average RMSE: 1.0036085
RMSE Range: [0.50767195, 2.796842]	RMSE Range: [0.63305, 3.601211]	RMSE Range: [0.4015609, 2.7449777]

Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties, Laplacian Smoothing (select parents) Misfits

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Standard Deviation

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Standard Deviation: 7.8641664E-5	Average Standard Deviation: 1.2737933E-4	Average Standard Deviation: 2.8021717E-5
Standard Deviation Range: [3.0694002E-5, 1.4831877E-4]	Standard Deviation Range: [4.2877255E-5, 3.9993253E-4]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.0105975E-5, 1.3021137E-4]

Mean

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Mean: -9.733026E-6	Average Mean: -1.2184407E-5	Average Mean: -3.3473882E-6
Mean Range: [-2.0856503E-5, -2.833301E-7]	Mean Range: [-3.4186887E-5, 7.542859E-7]	Mean Range: [-1.2162335E-5, 1.6099939E-6]

Mean Absolute Deviation

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 3.930223E-5	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 6.191963E-5	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.2500754E-5
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [1.6188811E-5, 7.244114E-5]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [2.4303912E-5, 1.4354888E-4]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [4.6847626E-6, 5.9450802E-5]

RMSE

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average RMSE: 7.9158424E-5	Average RMSE: 1.2781902E-4	Average RMSE: 2.8235092E-5
RMSE Range: [3.145631E-5, 1.4885797E-4]	RMSE Range: [4.3400043E-5, 4.0008503E-4]	RMSE Range: [1.0375307E-5, 1.3014642E-4]

Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Minimum from 2 models Misfits

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Standard Deviation

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Standard Deviation: 6.5254535E-10	Average Standard Deviation: 1.463401E-9	Average Standard Deviation: 7.0977374E-10
Standard Deviation Range: [0.0, 7.167672E-9]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.0, 1.2407443E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [6.8620903E-12, 1.2327371E-8]

Mean

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Mean: 1.8002162E-11	Average Mean: 3.304165E-11	Average Mean: 2.0437759E-11
Mean Range: [0.0, 1.755772E-10]	Mean Range: [0.0, 2.2984215E-9]	Mean Range: [1.2983488E-13, 2.3294294E-10]

Mean Absolute Deviation

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.8002162E-11	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 3.304165E-11	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 2.0437759E-11
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.0, 1.755772E-10]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.0, 2.2984215E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [1.2983488E-13, 2.3294294E-10]

RMSE

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average RMSE: 6.5274025E-10	Average RMSE: 1.4636442E-9	Average RMSE: 7.10017E-10
RMSE Range: [0.0, 7.168792E-9]	RMSE Range: [0.0, 1.2408229E-7]	RMSE Range: [6.8625765E-12, 1.2328238E-8]

Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.95, R₀=3] Misfits

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Standard Deviation

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Standard Deviation: 4.4908614E-8	Average Standard Deviation: 4.5116888E-8	Average Standard Deviation: 4.365835E-8
Standard Deviation Range: [9.07247E-10, 6.1414227E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [7.693168E-10, 4.6909733E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.046955E-9, 5.506526E-7]

Mean

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Mean: 2.2764162E-9	Average Mean: 2.2601707E-9	Average Mean: 2.2305844E-9
Mean Range: [6.663954E-11, 2.6547516E-8]	Mean Range: [6.6546255E-11, 2.0405006E-8]	Mean Range: [5.933976E-11, 2.3000192E-8]

Mean Absolute Deviation

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 2.2764162E-9	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 2.2601707E-9	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 2.2305844E-9
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [6.663954E-11, 2.6547516E-8]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [6.6546255E-11, 2.0405006E-8]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [5.933976E-11, 2.3000192E-8]

RMSE

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average RMSE: 4.4949772E-8	Average RMSE: 4.5156984E-8	Average RMSE: 4.369972E-8
RMSE Range: [9.09282E-10, 6.144526E-7]	RMSE Range: [7.71843E-10, 4.693399E-7]	RMSE Range: [1.0490572E-9, 5.508968E-7]

Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.65, R₀=2] Misfits

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Standard Deviation

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Standard Deviation: 4.4179868E-7	Average Standard Deviation: 4.3758905E-7	Average Standard Deviation: 4.396491E-7
Standard Deviation Range: [1.9625541E-9, 5.7692405E-6]	Standard Deviation Range: [2.4322895E-9, 5.3175618E-6]	Standard Deviation Range: [4.8300874E-9, 4.744935E-6]

Mean

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Mean: 1.8683648E-8	Average Mean: 1.8534365E-8	Average Mean: 1.8559737E-8
Mean Range: [1.265129E-10, 2.0145517E-7]	Mean Range: [1.2431355E-10, 1.9112234E-7]	Mean Range: [3.3412897E-10, 1.7373159E-7]

Mean Absolute Deviation

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.8683648E-8	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.8534365E-8	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.8559737E-8
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [1.265129E-10, 2.0145517E-7]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [1.2431355E-10, 1.9112234E-7]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [3.3412897E-10, 1.7373159E-7]

RMSE

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average RMSE: 4.4204896E-7	Average RMSE: 4.3783882E-7	Average RMSE: 4.3989684E-7
RMSE Range: [1.9657669E-9, 5.77035E-6]	RMSE Range: [2.4343967E-9, 5.3187773E-6]	RMSE Range: [4.8395132E-9, 4.746135E-6]

Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=2.12, R₀=4] Misfits

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Standard Deviation

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Standard Deviation: 1.5589345E-8	Average Standard Deviation: 1.4363812E-8	Average Standard Deviation: 1.4568016E-8
Standard Deviation Range: [2.824433E-12, 1.7793359E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [4.681144E-10, 1.4571475E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.324758E-10, 1.3131898E-7]

Mean

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Mean: 8.634026E-10	Average Mean: 8.142861E-10	Average Mean: 8.3101626E-10
Mean Range: [8.299979E-14, 8.706884E-9]	Mean Range: [1.8361807E-11, 8.505965E-9]	Mean Range: [5.493283E-12, 7.455185E-9]

Mean Absolute Deviation

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 8.634026E-10	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 8.142861E-10	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 8.3101626E-10
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [8.299979E-14, 8.706884E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [1.8361807E-11, 8.505965E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [5.493283E-12, 7.455185E-9]

RMSE

Even-Fit Paleo Data	Over-Fit Paleo Data (5x)	Under-Fit Paleo Data (10x)
Average RMSE: 1.5607668E-8	Average RMSE: 1.43818495E-8	Average RMSE: 1.45866945E-8
RMSE Range: [2.824433E-12, 1.7806973E-7]	RMSE Range: [4.691266E-10, 1.4589997E-7]	RMSE Range: [1.3253248E-10, 1.3147381E-7]

Segmentation Model

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Segmentation Model Average Constraint Fits

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Average misfits across all constraints as a function of Segmentation Model choice

Choice	Quantity	Average Constraint Misfit
HighSeg	Standard Deviation	1.1136225
LowSeg	Standard Deviation	1.113215
MidSeg	Standard Deviation	1.1163509
None	Standard Deviation	1.1642555
HighSeg	Mean	-0.1319139
LowSeg	Mean	-0.1317418
MidSeg	Mean	-0.13076654
None	Mean	-0.14280483
HighSeg	Mean Absolute Deviation	0.6001898
LowSeg	Mean Absolute Deviation	0.60364
MidSeg	Mean Absolute Deviation	0.6006175
None	Mean Absolute Deviation	0.64309067
HighSeg	RMSE	1.1263033
LowSeg	RMSE	1.1272042
MidSeg	RMSE	1.1292664
None	RMSE	1.1824948

Segmentation Model, Uncertain Slip Rate Misfits

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Standard Deviation

High Segmentation	Low Segmentation	Middle Segmentation	None
Average Standard Deviation: 1.265841	Average Standard Deviation: 1.2519774	Average Standard Deviation: 1.2562326	Average Standard Deviation: 1.3087426
Standard Deviation Range: [0.46386972, 7.7491665]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.41923192, 8.072172]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.44974378, 7.689649]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.43109837, 8.6793995]

Mean

High Segmentation	Low Segmentation	Middle Segmentation	None
Average Mean: -0.14531925	Average Mean: -0.15347266	Average Mean: -0.14661278	Average Mean: -0.19277667
Mean Range: [-0.44818017, 0.3607987]	Mean Range: [-0.51639825, 0.37579268]	Mean Range: [-0.5118306, 0.36788204]	Mean Range: [-0.6252677, 0.37674075]

Mean Absolute Deviation

High Segmentation	Low Segmentation	Middle Segmentation	None
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.5364012	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.5420163	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.5378655	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.58348083
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.19352438, 1.3035033]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.18326603, 1.4013402]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.1870951, 1.3585513]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.16906978, 1.5602381]

RMSE

High Segmentation	Low Segmentation	Middle Segmentation	None
Average RMSE: 1.2780119	Average RMSE: 1.2658848	Average RMSE: 1.2688607	Average RMSE: 1.3285837
RMSE Range: [0.46568656, 7.7494884]	RMSE Range: [0.42093718, 8.072567]	RMSE Range: [0.4517015, 7.6900606]	RMSE Range: [0.4329501, 8.679381]

Segmentation Model, Paleoseismic Event Rate Misfits

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Standard Deviation

High Segmentation	Low Segmentation	Middle Segmentation	None
Average Standard Deviation: 1.7120771	Average Standard Deviation: 1.6839217	Average Standard Deviation: 1.6936386	Average Standard Deviation: 1.6934259
Standard Deviation Range: [0.25745514, 9.236274]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.21496351, 8.779464]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.23909673, 8.854396]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.19299613, 9.043878]

Mean

High Segmentation	Low Segmentation	Middle Segmentation	None
Average Mean: -0.21002404	Average Mean: -0.26212654	Average Mean: -0.24228655	Average Mean: -0.29600975
Mean Range: [-3.5449896, 0.46283257]	Mean Range: [-3.820906, 0.1222892]	Mean Range: [-3.665226, 0.25417095]	Mean Range: [-4.3193607, 0.077134855]

Mean Absolute Deviation

High Segmentation	Low Segmentation	Middle Segmentation	None
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.85103136	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.8412675	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.84233946	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.86728597
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.18181403, 3.9147468]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.15281188, 4.1809278]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.16969487, 4.030414]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.13956724, 4.687816]

RMSE

High Segmentation	Low Segmentation	Middle Segmentation	None
Average RMSE: 1.725866	Average RMSE: 1.7037945	Average RMSE: 1.7101182	Average RMSE: 1.7222557
RMSE Range: [0.27547142, 9.798201]	RMSE Range: [0.22249939, 9.501414]	RMSE Range: [0.24388611, 9.508351]	RMSE Range: [0.20640858, 9.947938]

Segmentation Model, Uncertain Parkfield Misfits

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Standard Deviation

High Segmentation	Low Segmentation	Middle Segmentation	None
Average Standard Deviation: 0.50931334	Average Standard Deviation: 0.49762177	Average Standard Deviation: 0.49936652	Average Standard Deviation: 0.549834
Standard Deviation Range: [0.14980698, 1.3100306]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.10346252, 1.421531]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.11784607, 1.3850814]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.08405323, 1.8059237]

Mean

High Segmentation	Low Segmentation	Middle Segmentation	None
Average Mean: -0.50931334	Average Mean: -0.49762177	Average Mean: -0.49936652	Average Mean: -0.549834
Mean Range: [-1.3100306, -0.14980698]	Mean Range: [-1.421531, -0.10346252]	Mean Range: [-1.3850814, -0.11784607]	Mean Range: [-1.8059237, -0.08405323]

Mean Absolute Deviation

High Segmentation	Low Segmentation	Middle Segmentation	None
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.50931334	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.49762177	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.49936652	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.549834
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.14980698, 1.3100306]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.10346252, 1.421531]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.11784607, 1.3850814]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.08405323, 1.8059237]

RMSE

High Segmentation	Low Segmentation	Middle Segmentation	None
Average RMSE: 0.50931334	Average RMSE: 0.49762177	Average RMSE: 0.49936652	Average RMSE: 0.549834
RMSE Range: [0.14980698, 1.3100306]	RMSE Range: [0.10346252, 1.421531]	RMSE Range: [0.11784607, 1.3850814]	RMSE Range: [0.08405323, 1.8059237]

Segmentation Model, Uncertain MFD Equality Misfits

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Standard Deviation

High Segmentation	Low Segmentation	Middle Segmentation	None
Average Standard Deviation: 1.0062761	Average Standard Deviation: 1.0427942	Average Standard Deviation: 1.0271474	Average Standard Deviation: 1.1197354
Standard Deviation Range: [0.56134516, 2.7277696]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.59631026, 3.6659305]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.58121705, 3.1646676]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.6118967, 4.3981156]

Mean

High Segmentation	Low Segmentation	Middle Segmentation	None
Average Mean: -0.06559716	Average Mean: -0.018118441	Average Mean: -0.03706915	Average Mean: 0.026030574
Mean Range: [-0.5237584, 0.007640508]	Mean Range: [-0.5127424, 0.06471868]	Mean Range: [-0.503588, 0.026535323]	Mean Range: [-0.414821, 0.13902847]

Mean Absolute Deviation

High Segmentation	Low Segmentation	Middle Segmentation	None
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.5774727	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.6055869	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.59518296	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.6418241
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.3082461, 1.1721438]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.32524222, 1.1751357]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.31635383, 1.2296256]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.33990824, 1.2747046]

RMSE

High Segmentation	Low Segmentation	Middle Segmentation	None
Average RMSE: 1.0088831	Average RMSE: 1.0433695	Average RMSE: 1.0282786	Average RMSE: 1.1201874
RMSE Range: [0.56166494, 2.7527347]	RMSE Range: [0.59615654, 3.6645432]	RMSE Range: [0.5811136, 3.1797845]	RMSE Range: [0.61210275, 4.396955]

Segmentation Model, Uncertain Subsection Total Nucleation Rates Misfits

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Standard Deviation

High Segmentation	Low Segmentation	Middle Segmentation	None
Average Standard Deviation: 1.0746051	Average Standard Deviation: 1.0897598	Average Standard Deviation: 1.1053697	Average Standard Deviation: 1.1495398
Standard Deviation Range: [0.4535675, 3.024334]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.3984668, 3.391168]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.4226535, 3.2002227]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.40103087, 3.4283478]

Mean

High Segmentation	Low Segmentation	Middle Segmentation	None
Average Mean: 0.2706843	Average Mean: 0.27263036	Average Mean: 0.27150235	Average Mean: 0.29856575
Mean Range: [0.058608882, 0.7732924]	Mean Range: [0.040586628, 0.93046844]	Mean Range: [0.044947244, 0.8480042]	Mean Range: [0.021313528, 1.1033187]

Mean Absolute Deviation

High Segmentation	Low Segmentation	Middle Segmentation	None
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.5267304	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.53170747	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.52833325	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 0.5730284
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.18217552, 1.2633622]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.17173639, 1.3898293]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.17491508, 1.3392825]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.16317786, 1.5474101]

RMSE

High Segmentation	Low Segmentation	Middle Segmentation	None
Average RMSE: 1.1094421	Average RMSE: 1.1253504	Average RMSE: 1.139708	Average RMSE: 1.191613
RMSE Range: [0.46098188, 3.1213613]	RMSE Range: [0.40465355, 3.5162024]	RMSE Range: [0.42903224, 3.310386]	RMSE Range: [0.4015609, 3.601211]

Segmentation Model, Laplacian Smoothing (select parents) Misfits

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Standard Deviation

High Segmentation	Low Segmentation	Middle Segmentation	None
Average Standard Deviation: 8.133234E-5	Average Standard Deviation: 7.514473E-5	Average Standard Deviation: 7.827189E-5	Average Standard Deviation: 7.3025956E-5
Standard Deviation Range: [1.0358389E-5, 3.9944262E-4]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.1834617E-5, 3.997152E-4]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.0105975E-5, 3.9993253E-4]	Standard Deviation Range: [1.3029867E-5, 3.744332E-4]

Mean

High Segmentation	Low Segmentation	Middle Segmentation	None
Average Mean: -8.54286E-6	Average Mean: -8.319892E-6	Average Mean: -8.691761E-6	Average Mean: -7.450815E-6
Mean Range: [-2.9784262E-5, 7.542859E-7]	Mean Range: [-3.188072E-5, 4.1568444E-7]	Mean Range: [-3.0211837E-5, 2.798262E-7]	Mean Range: [-3.4186887E-5, 1.6099939E-6]

Mean Absolute Deviation

High Segmentation	Low Segmentation	Middle Segmentation	None
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 3.936532E-5	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 3.676438E-5	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 3.799073E-5	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 3.5570934E-5
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [4.6847626E-6, 1.4354888E-4]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [5.5560977E-6, 1.2354732E-4]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [5.673205E-6, 1.2855252E-4]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [6.698306E-6, 1.1938455E-4]

RMSE

High Segmentation	Low Segmentation	Middle Segmentation	None
Average RMSE: 8.170879E-5	Average RMSE: 7.554673E-5	Average RMSE: 7.868775E-5	Average RMSE: 7.335449E-5
RMSE Range: [1.0375307E-5, 3.9957746E-4]	RMSE Range: [1.193662E-5, 3.99871E-4]	RMSE Range: [1.0474247E-5, 4.0008503E-4]	RMSE Range: [1.32584055E-5, 3.747838E-4]

Segmentation Model, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Minimum from 2 models Misfits

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Standard Deviation

High Segmentation	Low Segmentation	Middle Segmentation
Average Standard Deviation: 1.0286455E-9	Average Standard Deviation: 7.995434E-10	Average Standard Deviation: 9.500768E-10
Standard Deviation Range: [8.840025E-13, 1.2407443E-7]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.0, 8.341977E-8]	Standard Deviation Range: [0.0, 6.9040375E-8]

Mean

High Segmentation	Low Segmentation	Middle Segmentation
Average Mean: 2.7715174E-11	Average Mean: 1.8606857E-11	Average Mean: 2.3419428E-11
Mean Range: [1.4213082E-14, 2.2984215E-9]	Mean Range: [0.0, 1.3539432E-9]	Mean Range: [0.0, 1.0824478E-9]

Mean Absolute Deviation

High Segmentation	Low Segmentation	Middle Segmentation
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 2.7715174E-11	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.8606857E-11	Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 2.3419428E-11
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [1.4213082E-14, 2.2984215E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.0, 1.3539432E-9]	Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [0.0, 1.0824478E-9]

RMSE

High Segmentation	Low Segmentation	Middle Segmentation
Average RMSE: 1.0289398E-9	Average RMSE: 7.9969126E-10	Average RMSE: 9.502895E-10
RMSE Range: [8.8402115E-13, 1.2408229E-7]	RMSE Range: [0.0, 8.342174E-8]	RMSE Range: [0.0, 6.904139E-8]

Segmentation Model, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.95, R₀=3] Misfits

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Standard Deviation

Middle Segmentation
Average Standard Deviation: 4.4561283E-8
Standard Deviation Range: [7.693168E-10, 6.1414227E-7]

Mean

Middle Segmentation
Average Mean: 2.2557238E-9
Mean Range: [5.933976E-11, 2.6547516E-8]

Mean Absolute Deviation

Middle Segmentation
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 2.2557238E-9
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [5.933976E-11, 2.6547516E-8]

RMSE

Middle Segmentation
Average RMSE: 4.460216E-8
RMSE Range: [7.71843E-10, 6.144526E-7]

Segmentation Model, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.65, R₀=2] Misfits

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Standard Deviation

High Segmentation
Average Standard Deviation: 4.3967896E-7
Standard Deviation Range: [1.9625541E-9, 5.7692405E-6]

Mean

High Segmentation
Average Mean: 1.8592583E-8
Mean Range: [1.2431355E-10, 2.0145517E-7]

Mean Absolute Deviation

High Segmentation
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 1.8592583E-8
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [1.2431355E-10, 2.0145517E-7]

RMSE

High Segmentation
Average RMSE: 4.3992821E-7
RMSE Range: [1.9657669E-9, 5.77035E-6]

Segmentation Model, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=2.12, R₀=4] Misfits

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Standard Deviation

Low Segmentation
Average Standard Deviation: 1.484039E-8
Standard Deviation Range: [2.824433E-12, 1.7793359E-7]

Mean

Low Segmentation
Average Mean: 8.3623497E-10
Mean Range: [8.299979E-14, 8.706884E-9]

Mean Absolute Deviation

Low Segmentation
Average Mean Absolute Deviation: 8.3623497E-10
Mean Absolute Deviation Range: [8.299979E-14, 8.706884E-9]

RMSE

Low Segmentation
Average RMSE: 1.4858737E-8
RMSE Range: [2.824433E-12, 1.7806973E-7]

Logic Tree Misfits

Table Of Contents

Mean Absolute Deviation Summary

Mean Absolute Deviation Average Uncertainty-Weighted Constraint Fits

Uncertain Slip Rate, Mean Absolute Deviation Summary

Paleoseismic Event Rate, Mean Absolute Deviation Summary

Uncertain Parkfield, Mean Absolute Deviation Summary

Uncertain MFD Equality, Mean Absolute Deviation Summary

Uncertain Subsection Total Nucleation Rates, Mean Absolute Deviation Summary

Laplacian Smoothing (select parents), Mean Absolute Deviation Summary

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Minimum from 2 models, Mean Absolute Deviation Summary

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.95, R₀=3], Mean Absolute Deviation Summary

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.65, R₀=2], Mean Absolute Deviation Summary

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=2.12, R₀=4], Mean Absolute Deviation Summary

Standard Deviation Summary

Standard Deviation Average Uncertainty-Weighted Constraint Fits

Uncertain Slip Rate, Standard Deviation Summary

Paleoseismic Event Rate, Standard Deviation Summary

Uncertain Parkfield, Standard Deviation Summary

Uncertain MFD Equality, Standard Deviation Summary

Uncertain Subsection Total Nucleation Rates, Standard Deviation Summary

Laplacian Smoothing (select parents), Standard Deviation Summary

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Minimum from 2 models, Standard Deviation Summary

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.95, R₀=3], Standard Deviation Summary

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.65, R₀=2], Standard Deviation Summary

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=2.12, R₀=4], Standard Deviation Summary

Constraint Summaries

Constraint Weights

Uncertain Slip Rate Summary

Paleoseismic Event Rate Summary

Uncertain Parkfield Summary

Uncertain MFD Equality Summary

Uncertain Subsection Total Nucleation Rates Summary

Laplacian Smoothing (select parents) Summary

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Minimum from 2 models Summary

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.95, R₀=3] Summary

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.65, R₀=2] Summary

Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=2.12, R₀=4] Summary

Deformation Model

Deformation Model Average Constraint Fits

Deformation Model, Uncertain Slip Rate Misfits

Deformation Model, Paleoseismic Event Rate Misfits

Deformation Model, Uncertain Parkfield Misfits

Deformation Model, Uncertain MFD Equality Misfits

Deformation Model, Uncertain Subsection Total Nucleation Rates Misfits

Deformation Model, Laplacian Smoothing (select parents) Misfits

Deformation Model, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Minimum from 2 models Misfits

Deformation Model, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.95, R₀=3] Misfits

Deformation Model, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.65, R₀=2] Misfits

Deformation Model, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=2.12, R₀=4] Misfits

Scaling Relationship

Scaling Relationship Average Constraint Fits

Scaling Relationship, Uncertain Slip Rate Misfits

Scaling Relationship, Paleoseismic Event Rate Misfits

Scaling Relationship, Uncertain Parkfield Misfits

Scaling Relationship, Uncertain MFD Equality Misfits

Scaling Relationship, Uncertain Subsection Total Nucleation Rates Misfits

Scaling Relationship, Laplacian Smoothing (select parents) Misfits

Scaling Relationship, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Minimum from 2 models Misfits

Scaling Relationship, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.95, R₀=3] Misfits

Scaling Relationship, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.65, R₀=2] Misfits

Scaling Relationship, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=2.12, R₀=4] Misfits

Supra-Seismogenic b-value

Supra-Seismogenic b-value Average Constraint Fits

Supra-Seismogenic b-value, Uncertain Slip Rate Misfits

Supra-Seismogenic b-value, Paleoseismic Event Rate Misfits

Supra-Seismogenic b-value, Uncertain Parkfield Misfits

Supra-Seismogenic b-value, Uncertain MFD Equality Misfits

Supra-Seismogenic b-value, Uncertain Subsection Total Nucleation Rates Misfits

Supra-Seismogenic b-value, Laplacian Smoothing (select parents) Misfits

Supra-Seismogenic b-value, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Minimum from 2 models Misfits

Supra-Seismogenic b-value, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.95, R₀=3] Misfits

Supra-Seismogenic b-value, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=1.65, R₀=2] Misfits

Supra-Seismogenic b-value, Relative Rate Jump Probability Constraint, Shaw07 [A=2.12, R₀=4] Misfits

Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties

Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties Average Constraint Fits

Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties, Uncertain Slip Rate Misfits

Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties, Paleoseismic Event Rate Misfits

Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties, Uncertain Parkfield Misfits

Paleoseismic Data Uncertainties, Uncertain MFD Equality Misfits